Inland Northwest Hay Weather

Yesterday’s rain left us with a very moist and unstable atmosphere.  Another band of rain from Montana and BC is expected later this afternoon and tonight. This combination could bring very heavy rain to parts of northeast Washington. The thunderstorms will be rather slow moving so downpours could cause some flooding issues, driveway washouts, etc. Here is the blend of all of the various computer forecasts.  You can see the majority of the rain falls over Pend Oreille county (Newport, Cusick, Ione). Here’s some individual computer forecasts.  I could show a lot more,  but this gives you the idea. You can see that most forecasts keep the heavy rain north of Deer Park and Wilbur.  But a few push the rain down into Spokane tonight. It also looks like the showers could continue into Tuesday, although not as heavy as today. The good news is that warmer and drier weather is on the way starting Wednesday.  We’ll be into the lower 80s by the Fourth and near 90 by t...

The answer to this blog’s title isn’t an easy one, and it’s going to depend on what risk you’re willing to take. The overall set up is this. The large low pressure system will wobble around the Northwest and vicinity for the next few days. But even when the low is east of us, we’re not out of the woods. Rainfall over Montana or even BC can wrap around the low into our area, even as late as Tuesday. So if you want a sure-fire dry forecast, you’ll probably have to wait until Wednesday.  But some folks have a lot of hay to cut and can’t wait that long. So here’s some probabilities of rain and amounts to consider.  If you live up north near Colville or Newport, odds are pretty high that you’ll see more rain, especially on Sunday night and Monday.  And it could be as much as a third of an inch. If you’re closer to the Deer Park area, the story is similar, but the amounts and probabilities are a bit lower.  Maybe a quarter inch? And if you’re down by Spokane, well then the...

A weak weather disturbance will pass by the area today and tonight. This will generate some showers late this afternoon and overnight over the northern mountains. But a few of the computer forecasts bring a few showers south of Spokane.  Here’s an example of the rainfall most forecasts are predicting. And here is an example of what a few of the computer models are expecting, with showers south of Spokane.  As you can see, the coverage is rather spotty, so the odds of you seeing rain are about 10%. But I wanted to give you a heads up, in case you’re making decisions about raking or picking up bales.  

The much talked-about rain is still expected to arrive Friday morning. Computer models are still working on the details, such as “how much?” and “when?” Here’s the average of computer forecasts for Friday through Saturday morning.  Around a 1/4” for the Spokane area.  More to the north, less to the south. The US model is now one of the wetter forecasts. During the weekend, the low will slowly pass over us.  This will bring us cool (in the 60s) and brisk (gusts to 30 mph), with showers possible.   As the low moves into Montana by Monday, rain is expected to wrap around the low and enter northeast Washington from BC.  Just how much rain and how far south it spreads are impossible to predict at this point.  Some forecasts predict no rain at all, while others have rain in northeast Washington lasting into Tuesday. For those thinking beyond this weekend weather system, the outlook for next week is for mostly dry and mild weather up through Independence Day. ...

Our prolonged June dry spell is coming to an end on Friday.  Before we get there,  gradual warming trend to near 90 by Wednesday.  Some locations might maintain a breeze all night long for the next few nights. This could inhibit dew formation.  Thursday will be breezy with wind gusts to 25 mph. The rain looks like it will arrive on Friday morning, possibly as early as sunrise.  The weather system is another slow, rolling low.  As such, there will be additional chances of rain as bands pinwheel around the low through the weekend.  Showery weather will be possible next week. How much rain are we looking at?  Here’s a few computer forecasts for the Friday-Saturday period.  T As usual, lots of variation. Some models give Spokane 0.1”, while others anticipate over a half inch. The weather is usually showery at this time of year, so amounts typically vary over small distances.  The weather will gradually warm up and dry out next week, but no h...

I trust everyone is busy putting up some nice first cutting hay. And in the back of your mind is the question “How long will this dry weather last?” After a breezy Saturday tomorrow, a weak weather system will clip our northeastern parts with a small chance of showers on Sunday.  Here’s what the chance of rain looks like from the European computer. Rain should be confined to the northern Panhandle and extreme northeast Washington. Rainfall amounts could be around a tenth of an inch in the northern Panhandle, and less than that in Pend Oreille county. Beyond that, we’re looking at another dry week.  Temperatures will warm to around 90F on Wednesday and Thursday.  Wind will be breezy starting Thursday and continue into next weekend as a weak cool front moves into the area. Temperatures will fall to around 80 for the last weekend of June, along with a threat of showers.  Here’s the European forecast for next Saturday.  About a 40-50% chance of rain. Beyond that, it...

I realize everyone is busy cutting, raking and baling. I just wanted to quickly draw your attention to a potential weather hazard on Tuesday. Not rain, but wind.  A weak weather system will pass by to our north on Tuesday. This will cause winds to gust in excess of 40 mph in some areas, possibly 50 mph in the Basin. Here’s the European computer forecast for Tuesday afternoon wind gusts.  This kind of wind could play havoc with windrows of hay.   Also, for those who live where the fine grasses have cured, this could pose a potential wildfire threat.   This storm system could bring a few showers to the northern Panhandle on Wednesday. Aside from that, the weather looks dry this week.  Small chances of rain don’t show up until Monday the 22nd and continue through much of next week.  Too far out to make any plans around, until we get a bit closer to the potential event.  

I’m guessing most of you know what I mean by the term “cold pocket”. There’s just some locations that nearly always seem to be colder than the surrounding areas. While this tends to happen more in areas of varied terrain, it can happen just about anywhere. So why do cold pockets exist?  Mainly it has to do with those locations where the wind goes calm at night.  This allows the atmosphere to cool without the wind mixing in warmer air from above.  And it’s usually not obvious why a location likes to go calm at night. Additionally, the direction of the wind plays a role. Some locations go calm except if this wind is from a certain direction. The Inland Northwest has a lot of these cold pockets. And our recent June cold snap showed a number of them. When I started with the Weather Service in Spokane 30 years ago, we had very few weather observations.  Mainly just the airports. But that included the Deer Park airport.  And so we knew that Deer Park was a cold pocke...

Our mid-June rainstorm is over. Some locations picked up significant rainfall.  Drier air is moving into the region. This will allow our temperatures on Thursday morning to drop into the 30s once again .  But then the steady warming trend begins. The warmth should peak around 90 by next Tuesday before temperatures cool off some. As we talked about in the last blog, the position of the high pressure offshore leaves us open to weather systems from the northwest. We’ll see one of those on Friday, but the threat of showers should be minor and mainly confined to north of Newport.  Here’s the European rainfall forecast for Friday.  The next small chance of rain looks to be around the 20th of June.  It also looks like it could get a little breezy next week.  Dew points look like they will stay in the 40s, which will mean afternoon humidity around 25%, and not a heavy morning dew.

The forecast from my previous blog entry is pretty much holding course. The 30F reading this morning at Deer Park airport definitely adjusted our climate clocks. It is June after all. And it’s been 14 years since Deer Park as seen such a cold morning this late in the spring. But now our attention turns to the upcoming rain. The computers have come into overall agreement. It doesn’t look like this is going to be a stalled low pressure system with unpredictable bands of rain over a few days. Rather, it’s looking more like a quicker event. Confidence is very high that it will be raining before sunrise on Tuesday, and it will continue most all the day. It should be done by Wednesday morning.  Here’s the forecast for the next 10 days. Amounts range from 0.25” to 0.75” depending on your location and which model you believe. But  suffice to say, you don’t want to have hay down if you can avoid it.  Here’s few computer forecasts.  Lastly, the Model Blend forecast is more bea...

It’s that time of year when we stop rooting for a good rain storm and instead hope for a week of dry weather. So you’re probably looking at your favorite weather app and seeing something like this: Should you ignore the forecast for next week and start cutting now?  The alfalfa is already starting to bloom. The chance of rain on Saturday probably won’t be enough to worry about.  The storm is coming at us from the northwest, which is typically not a favorable direction for precipitation around here. Below is a computer forecast of precipitation.  Should be less than 0.10”, unless you live north of Colville and Sandpoint.  But it will bring dry air so the Sunday morning low temperature will probably be in the 30s. The bigger question is the rain for next week.  Here’s the forecast weather map for next Tuesday. That pattern looks cool and possibly wet.  Why do I say “possibly”?  This looks like it will be another spring storm.  We’ve talked about the...

The critical rains of May turned out to be somewhat of a mixed bag. The graph below shows precipitation at Deer Park for the current May (green line), May of 2025 (purple line), and an average May (brown line).  May 2026 featured two long dry spells, but with good rains in the middle and and of the month.  But the total was half an inch below normal.  Compare that to last year which also had two long dry spells and ended with nearly the exact same total.  The biggest difference is that last year was dry during the last half of the month. Looking at the entire region, the story was much the same.  Except for a couple of isolated locations, the entire state (actually nearly all of the Northwest) was well below normal for its rainfall in May. So what can we expect for June weather?  The climate prediction center updated their outlook, but it’s still not an encouraging prediction.  Drier and warmer than normal for the Northwest. All of the climate computer...