Posts

When Can You Start Cutting?

Image
The answer to this blog’s title isn’t an easy one, and it’s going to depend on what risk you’re willing to take. The overall set up is this. The large low pressure system will wobble around the Northwest and vicinity for the next few days. But even when the low is east of us, we’re not out of the woods. Rainfall over Montana or even BC can wrap around the low into our area, even as late as Tuesday. So if you want a sure-fire dry forecast, you’ll probably have to wait until Wednesday.  But some folks have a lot of hay to cut and can’t wait that long. So here’s some probabilities of rain and amounts to consider.  If you live up north near Colville or Newport, odds are pretty high that you’ll see more rain, especially on Sunday night and Monday.  And it could be as much as a third of an inch. If you’re closer to the Deer Park area, the story is similar, but the amounts and probabilities are a bit lower.  Maybe a quarter inch? And if you’re down by Spokane, well then the...
Post a Comment
Read more

Showers tonight?

Image
A weak weather disturbance will pass by the area today and tonight. This will generate some showers late this afternoon and overnight over the northern mountains. But a few of the computer forecasts bring a few showers south of Spokane.  Here’s an example of the rainfall most forecasts are predicting. And here is an example of what a few of the computer models are expecting, with showers south of Spokane.  As you can see, the coverage is rather spotty, so the odds of you seeing rain are about 10%. But I wanted to give you a heads up, in case you’re making decisions about raking or picking up bales.  
Post a Comment
Read more

Rain by Friday - Update

Image
The much talked-about rain is still expected to arrive Friday morning. Computer models are still working on the details, such as “how much?” and “when?” Here’s the average of computer forecasts for Friday through Saturday morning.  Around a 1/4” for the Spokane area.  More to the north, less to the south. The US model is now one of the wetter forecasts. During the weekend, the low will slowly pass over us.  This will bring us cool (in the 60s) and brisk (gusts to 30 mph), with showers possible.   As the low moves into Montana by Monday, rain is expected to wrap around the low and enter northeast Washington from BC.  Just how much rain and how far south it spreads are impossible to predict at this point.  Some forecasts predict no rain at all, while others have rain in northeast Washington lasting into Tuesday. For those thinking beyond this weekend weather system, the outlook for next week is for mostly dry and mild weather up through Independence Day. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Rain by Friday

Image
Our prolonged June dry spell is coming to an end on Friday.  Before we get there,  gradual warming trend to near 90 by Wednesday.  Some locations might maintain a breeze all night long for the next few nights. This could inhibit dew formation.  Thursday will be breezy with wind gusts to 25 mph. The rain looks like it will arrive on Friday morning, possibly as early as sunrise.  The weather system is another slow, rolling low.  As such, there will be additional chances of rain as bands pinwheel around the low through the weekend.  Showery weather will be possible next week. How much rain are we looking at?  Here’s a few computer forecasts for the Friday-Saturday period.  T As usual, lots of variation. Some models give Spokane 0.1”, while others anticipate over a half inch. The weather is usually showery at this time of year, so amounts typically vary over small distances.  The weather will gradually warm up and dry out next week, but no h...
Post a Comment
Read more

When Will the Dry Weather End?

Image
I trust everyone is busy putting up some nice first cutting hay. And in the back of your mind is the question “How long will this dry weather last?” After a breezy Saturday tomorrow, a weak weather system will clip our northeastern parts with a small chance of showers on Sunday.  Here’s what the chance of rain looks like from the European computer. Rain should be confined to the northern Panhandle and extreme northeast Washington. Rainfall amounts could be around a tenth of an inch in the northern Panhandle, and less than that in Pend Oreille county. Beyond that, we’re looking at another dry week.  Temperatures will warm to around 90F on Wednesday and Thursday.  Wind will be breezy starting Thursday and continue into next weekend as a weak cool front moves into the area. Temperatures will fall to around 80 for the last weekend of June, along with a threat of showers.  Here’s the European forecast for next Saturday.  About a 40-50% chance of rain. Beyond that, it...
Post a Comment
Read more

Windy Tuesday

Image
I realize everyone is busy cutting, raking and baling. I just wanted to quickly draw your attention to a potential weather hazard on Tuesday. Not rain, but wind.  A weak weather system will pass by to our north on Tuesday. This will cause winds to gust in excess of 40 mph in some areas, possibly 50 mph in the Basin. Here’s the European computer forecast for Tuesday afternoon wind gusts.  This kind of wind could play havoc with windrows of hay.   Also, for those who live where the fine grasses have cured, this could pose a potential wildfire threat.   This storm system could bring a few showers to the northern Panhandle on Wednesday. Aside from that, the weather looks dry this week.  Small chances of rain don’t show up until Monday the 22nd and continue through much of next week.  Too far out to make any plans around, until we get a bit closer to the potential event.  
Post a Comment
Read more

Cold Pockets

Image
I’m guessing most of you know what I mean by the term “cold pocket”. There’s just some locations that nearly always seem to be colder than the surrounding areas. While this tends to happen more in areas of varied terrain, it can happen just about anywhere. So why do cold pockets exist?  Mainly it has to do with those locations where the wind goes calm at night.  This allows the atmosphere to cool without the wind mixing in warmer air from above.  And it’s usually not obvious why a location likes to go calm at night. Additionally, the direction of the wind plays a role. Some locations go calm except if this wind is from a certain direction. The Inland Northwest has a lot of these cold pockets. And our recent June cold snap showed a number of them. When I started with the Weather Service in Spokane 30 years ago, we had very few weather observations.  Mainly just the airports. But that included the Deer Park airport.  And so we knew that Deer Park was a cold pocke...
Post a Comment
Read more