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Time to Bale

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By now most folks have a lot of hay down and are preparing to bale.  I just wanted to provide a few weather details. First, the potential rain on the 6th or 7th appears to be shifting south, as we expected.  Only a 10% chance of rain on the 8th.  Not enough to plan around at this point. We will be warming into the lower 90s by Monday and Tuesday, as you can see on the red line in the graph below. The other thing to note on the graph above is the black line, which is dew point. You’ll notice that dew points are expected to drop a bit, to around 40. Our low temperature should drop into the 40s for the next few mornings, which means there should be a least a light morning dew through Tuesday.  For wind, we’ll see breezy afternoons continue today and Saturday, followed by mostly calm days on Sunday and Monday. However, conditions will turn a bit breezy on Tuesday afternoon and become windy on Wednesday as a weak cool front moves through. So don’t expect to see any dew on...
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Time to Cut

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You’ve probably already mowed several acres today as our June rain event departs. I just wanted to give you a few details on the upcoming dry spell. But first, here’s a total rainfall map of the past 6 days. Impressive amounts in some areas (northeast Washington mountains) while other areas received only scant rainfall (Spokane and South). (The 3.99” measurement at Inchelium is likely erroneous). Our temperatures will slowly climb, reaching near 90 by Monday and staying there for all of next week.  Meanwhile the dew point will gradually drop as we dry out.  As such, you might notice a slow decrease in the amount of morning dew through next week. Afternoons should have a light breeze for the rest of the week, which should aid in drying hay. The forecast does look dry for the next two weeks.  Not unusual for July.    However, the US model has been showing a possible thunderstorm event next week, around the 6th.  Here’s its forecast of the 24 hour probability ...
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Heavy Rain Expected Today and Tonight

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Yesterday’s rain left us with a very moist and unstable atmosphere.  Another band of rain from Montana and BC is expected later this afternoon and tonight. This combination could bring very heavy rain to parts of northeast Washington. The thunderstorms will be rather slow moving so downpours could cause some flooding issues, driveway washouts, etc. Here is the blend of all of the various computer forecasts.  You can see the majority of the rain falls over Pend Oreille county (Newport, Cusick, Ione). Here’s some individual computer forecasts.  I could show a lot more,  but this gives you the idea. You can see that most forecasts keep the heavy rain north of Deer Park and Wilbur.  But a few push the rain down into Spokane tonight. It also looks like the showers could continue into Tuesday, although not as heavy as today. The good news is that warmer and drier weather is on the way starting Wednesday.  We’ll be into the lower 80s by the Fourth and near 90 by t...
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When Can You Start Cutting?

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The answer to this blog’s title isn’t an easy one, and it’s going to depend on what risk you’re willing to take. The overall set up is this. The large low pressure system will wobble around the Northwest and vicinity for the next few days. But even when the low is east of us, we’re not out of the woods. Rainfall over Montana or even BC can wrap around the low into our area, even as late as Tuesday. So if you want a sure-fire dry forecast, you’ll probably have to wait until Wednesday.  But some folks have a lot of hay to cut and can’t wait that long. So here’s some probabilities of rain and amounts to consider.  If you live up north near Colville or Newport, odds are pretty high that you’ll see more rain, especially on Sunday night and Monday.  And it could be as much as a third of an inch. If you’re closer to the Deer Park area, the story is similar, but the amounts and probabilities are a bit lower.  Maybe a quarter inch? And if you’re down by Spokane, well then the...
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Showers tonight?

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A weak weather disturbance will pass by the area today and tonight. This will generate some showers late this afternoon and overnight over the northern mountains. But a few of the computer forecasts bring a few showers south of Spokane.  Here’s an example of the rainfall most forecasts are predicting. And here is an example of what a few of the computer models are expecting, with showers south of Spokane.  As you can see, the coverage is rather spotty, so the odds of you seeing rain are about 10%. But I wanted to give you a heads up, in case you’re making decisions about raking or picking up bales.  
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Rain by Friday - Update

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The much talked-about rain is still expected to arrive Friday morning. Computer models are still working on the details, such as “how much?” and “when?” Here’s the average of computer forecasts for Friday through Saturday morning.  Around a 1/4” for the Spokane area.  More to the north, less to the south. The US model is now one of the wetter forecasts. During the weekend, the low will slowly pass over us.  This will bring us cool (in the 60s) and brisk (gusts to 30 mph), with showers possible.   As the low moves into Montana by Monday, rain is expected to wrap around the low and enter northeast Washington from BC.  Just how much rain and how far south it spreads are impossible to predict at this point.  Some forecasts predict no rain at all, while others have rain in northeast Washington lasting into Tuesday. For those thinking beyond this weekend weather system, the outlook for next week is for mostly dry and mild weather up through Independence Day. ...
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Rain by Friday

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Our prolonged June dry spell is coming to an end on Friday.  Before we get there,  gradual warming trend to near 90 by Wednesday.  Some locations might maintain a breeze all night long for the next few nights. This could inhibit dew formation.  Thursday will be breezy with wind gusts to 25 mph. The rain looks like it will arrive on Friday morning, possibly as early as sunrise.  The weather system is another slow, rolling low.  As such, there will be additional chances of rain as bands pinwheel around the low through the weekend.  Showery weather will be possible next week. How much rain are we looking at?  Here’s a few computer forecasts for the Friday-Saturday period.  T As usual, lots of variation. Some models give Spokane 0.1”, while others anticipate over a half inch. The weather is usually showery at this time of year, so amounts typically vary over small distances.  The weather will gradually warm up and dry out next week, but no h...
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