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When to Cut? - Update

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The forecast from my previous blog entry is pretty much holding course. The 30F reading this morning at Deer Park airport definitely adjusted our climate clocks. It is June after all. And it’s been 14 years since Deer Park as seen such a cold morning this late in the spring. But now our attention turns to the upcoming rain. The computers have come into overall agreement. It doesn’t look like this is going to be a stalled low pressure system with unpredictable bands of rain over a few days. Rather, it’s looking more like a quicker event. Confidence is very high that it will be raining before sunrise on Tuesday, and it will continue most all the day. It should be done by Wednesday morning.  Here’s the forecast for the next 10 days. Amounts range from 0.25” to 0.75” depending on your location and which model you believe. But  suffice to say, you don’t want to have hay down if you can avoid it.  Here’s few computer forecasts.  Lastly, the Model Blend forecast is more bea...
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When to Cut?

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It’s that time of year when we stop rooting for a good rain storm and instead hope for a week of dry weather. So you’re probably looking at your favorite weather app and seeing something like this: Should you ignore the forecast for next week and start cutting now?  The alfalfa is already starting to bloom. The chance of rain on Saturday probably won’t be enough to worry about.  The storm is coming at us from the northwest, which is typically not a favorable direction for precipitation around here. Below is a computer forecast of precipitation.  Should be less than 0.10”, unless you live north of Colville and Sandpoint.  But it will bring dry air so the Sunday morning low temperature will probably be in the 30s. The bigger question is the rain for next week.  Here’s the forecast weather map for next Tuesday. That pattern looks cool and possibly wet.  Why do I say “possibly”?  This looks like it will be another spring storm.  We’ve talked about the...
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From May into June

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The critical rains of May turned out to be somewhat of a mixed bag. The graph below shows precipitation at Deer Park for the current May (green line), May of 2025 (purple line), and an average May (brown line).  May 2026 featured two long dry spells, but with good rains in the middle and and of the month.  But the total was half an inch below normal.  Compare that to last year which also had two long dry spells and ended with nearly the exact same total.  The biggest difference is that last year was dry during the last half of the month. Looking at the entire region, the story was much the same.  Except for a couple of isolated locations, the entire state (actually nearly all of the Northwest) was well below normal for its rainfall in May. So what can we expect for June weather?  The climate prediction center updated their outlook, but it’s still not an encouraging prediction.  Drier and warmer than normal for the Northwest. All of the climate computer...
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Windy Storms on Thursday Evening

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Previously I mentioned Friday had the potential to be a rainy day. But now the computers are fine-tuning their forecast and are beginning to focus on a Thursday evening event.  But first, let me show you our rainfall event that just finished up.  Northeast Washington fared very well, as did the Palouse and Panhandle.  North central Washington as well as the Basin received much less. Our rainfall over the late winter and spring had been tracking close to normal. (The green line is this year’s rainfall, the brown line is a normal years rainfall).  But then those two long dry spells starting in late April have really put us behind on our rainfall.  For the water year (since 1 October), Deer Park is now 1.5” below normal, even after yesterday’s rain. Looking at a map of the state, we can easily see where the dry conditions are located, with the northeast 3 counties generally averaging 50-75% of normal precipitation. So let’s look at the next potential rain even...
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Multiple Chances of Rain

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We’re near the end of yet another mid-spring dry spell. Deer Park airport has had only 4 days of rain so far this month, compared with a normal of 11 days. We’ll likely add a few more days this month, but overall we’ll fall short of an average May.  Rain should start Monday evening and continue into parts of Tuesday. Don’t expect a lot of rain from this first round. Something around 0.10”.  After that, we’ll see our typical May pattern set up. A nearly-stationary low to our south with the potential for bands of showers to rotate around it.  Notoriously hard to predict.  Here’s our chances of rain for the next 10 days.  At this point the best chance of this bringing rain to our area is around Friday.  But we’ll have to wait a few days to see how things shape up.  Here’s the current forecast for rainfall amounts.  Possibly around a half inch. The first few days of June look like they will be warm and dry.  But another round of showers is possib...
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Dry Weather, then Wet Weather

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  We’ve just finished a period of stormy, wet and cool weather. In typical spring fashion, we’ll now have some drier, warmer weather. But it doesn’t look like it will last too long. But before that, here’s a quick recap of the rainfall over the past 6 days. A very welcome rain. Today and Wednesday: afternoon showers, mainly in the Panhandle and extreme northeast Washington.  Highs 65-70.  Breezy afternoons. Thursday through Sunday: Dry and warmer, with an isolated shower near the BC border.  Highs in the 70s.  Gusty winds for the weekend. Monday thru Wednesday: a bit cooler with a chance of showers. After a few dry days, it does look like May might end on a wetter note.
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Rain Returns - Update #2

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The rain forecast for tomorrow (Wednesday) is still pretty much on track with the previous thinking.  Here’s the blended average forecast from the various computers. Around 0.1” in the Spokane area, and 0.25” in northeast Washington. But as pointed out in the previous blog, some computer forecast have double that amount of rainfall.  The main thing I wanted to point to is the wind potential. I previously mentioned that gusty winds would be possible tomorrow. It’s now looking more likely we’ll see some rather strong winds tomorrow. Unusual for a May storm.  Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly after midnight.  Wednesday morning: rain with a few thunderstorms still possible. Strong winds will develop rather suddenly in the late morning hours. Gusts 40-50 mph are possible. We’ll probably reach our high temperature in the 60s by late morning.  Wednesday afternoon: strong winds continue, but more rain is also expected. Temperatures fallin...
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