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Monsoon Update

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Things are getting hot and a little humid out there thanks to our southerly monsoonal flow. And they’re about to get a little wet. In the previous blog I mentioned a small stationary low off the Washington coast that was predicted to move across northwest Washington on Thursday. That is still the plan. And when it does, it will draw monsoon moisture into it, creating rain and thunderstorms, but mainly west of the Cascades.  But on Thursday night and Friday morning there could be a second impulse that could bring showers and storms to northeast Washington. Here’s the predicted rainfall for this event from the European model: You can see mostly light amounts of rainfall (less than 0.10”) for northeast Washington.  There’s an equal chance that we will see no rainfall or just sprinkles. This will knock our temperatures back a bit from the near 100F on Thursday. But it looks like we’ll stay in the 90s through the end of the month. We’ll also see some drier air, allowing our low tem...
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Summer Heat

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Depending on your preferred weather app, you’ve probably seen something like this forecast for the next 10 days in Spokane from Accuweather: Yes, summer heat has arrived.  The last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August are on average the peak of the summer heat season.  Here’s the current weather map: The dominant weather feature is a large high pressure center over the central US.  It set all-time records in eastern Montana on Sunday including 115F at Miles City.   The high is just a little too far east to bring triple digits to the Northwest. But there’s also a small low just off the Washington coast. We talked in the last blog about monsoon moisture paying a visit to our area this week.  For the most part this will be mountain thunderstorms.  Tuesday afternoon could see some storms over northeast Washington mountains.  But that small low is forecasted to move across northwest Washington mid-week, and when it does, that will be our best...
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Monsoon Moisture Next Week

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For those who have lived in the desert Southwest, you know that there is a wet season there. And it’s not in the winter. Here’s the average monthly rainfall for Tucson AZ.  The months of July, August and even early September are the wettest months.  Meanwhile, in the Inland Northwest, these are the driest months. The cause of the summer rains in the Southwest is known as the Southwest Monsoon.  A monsoon is defined as a seasonal shift in winds that cause a distinct change in the precipitation pattern.  In the Southwest, this change in wind direction is the result of persistent high pressure during the summer near the Four Corners area.  Air rotates around a high pressure center in a clockwise direction.  This acts to draw moisture up from Mexico into Arizona and New Mexico. Typically this moisture then rotates across southern Utah and into Colorado.  This is the “Frequent” pattern in the image below (courtesy of  https://opensnow.com/ ) Occasional...
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Possible Shower Wednesday Morning

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A couple of blogs ago I told you about the potential for some light rain on Wednesday morning, but it was a very small chance. Then the computers backed away from this idea. Well, now it’s back in some of the forecasts. And to be up front, it’s still only about a 10% chance of rain.  But I wanted to give you a heads up. We’re going to have some warm weather today (Monday) and especially tomorrow, when temperatures warm into the lower and even mid 90s. This will create a rather unstable (but dry) atmosphere. A weak cool front will then drop our temperatures back into the 80s for the remainder of the week.  But this front could spark off a few showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning.   Again, most of the computers don’t expect this to happen.  But here’s what one computer thinks will be happening around 2am Wednesday.   If you look closely, those small green blobs around the Spokane area are showers and thunderstorms.  Don’t get wrapped up about the...
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Time to Bale

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By now most folks have a lot of hay down and are preparing to bale.  I just wanted to provide a few weather details. First, the potential rain on the 6th or 7th appears to be shifting south, as we expected.  Only a 10% chance of rain on the 8th.  Not enough to plan around at this point. We will be warming into the lower 90s by Monday and Tuesday, as you can see on the red line in the graph below. The other thing to note on the graph above is the black line, which is dew point. You’ll notice that dew points are expected to drop a bit, to around 40. Our low temperature should drop into the 40s for the next few mornings, which means there should be a least a light morning dew through Tuesday.  For wind, we’ll see breezy afternoons continue today and Saturday, followed by mostly calm days on Sunday and Monday. However, conditions will turn a bit breezy on Tuesday afternoon and become windy on Wednesday as a weak cool front moves through. So don’t expect to see any dew on...
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Time to Cut

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You’ve probably already mowed several acres today as our June rain event departs. I just wanted to give you a few details on the upcoming dry spell. But first, here’s a total rainfall map of the past 6 days. Impressive amounts in some areas (northeast Washington mountains) while other areas received only scant rainfall (Spokane and South). (The 3.99” measurement at Inchelium is likely erroneous). Our temperatures will slowly climb, reaching near 90 by Monday and staying there for all of next week.  Meanwhile the dew point will gradually drop as we dry out.  As such, you might notice a slow decrease in the amount of morning dew through next week. Afternoons should have a light breeze for the rest of the week, which should aid in drying hay. The forecast does look dry for the next two weeks.  Not unusual for July.    However, the US model has been showing a possible thunderstorm event next week, around the 6th.  Here’s its forecast of the 24 hour probability ...
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Heavy Rain Expected Today and Tonight

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Yesterday’s rain left us with a very moist and unstable atmosphere.  Another band of rain from Montana and BC is expected later this afternoon and tonight. This combination could bring very heavy rain to parts of northeast Washington. The thunderstorms will be rather slow moving so downpours could cause some flooding issues, driveway washouts, etc. Here is the blend of all of the various computer forecasts.  You can see the majority of the rain falls over Pend Oreille county (Newport, Cusick, Ione). Here’s some individual computer forecasts.  I could show a lot more,  but this gives you the idea. You can see that most forecasts keep the heavy rain north of Deer Park and Wilbur.  But a few push the rain down into Spokane tonight. It also looks like the showers could continue into Tuesday, although not as heavy as today. The good news is that warmer and drier weather is on the way starting Wednesday.  We’ll be into the lower 80s by the Fourth and near 90 by t...
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