Inland Northwest Hay Weather

For those who have lived in the desert Southwest, you know that there is a wet season there. And it’s not in the winter. Here’s the average monthly rainfall for Tucson AZ.  The months of July, August and even early September are the wettest months.  Meanwhile, in the Inland Northwest, these are the driest months. The cause of the summer rains in the Southwest is known as the Southwest Monsoon.  A monsoon is defined as a seasonal shift in winds that cause a distinct change in the precipitation pattern.  In the Southwest, this change in wind direction is the result of persistent high pressure during the summer near the Four Corners area.  Air rotates around a high pressure center in a clockwise direction.  This acts to draw moisture up from Mexico into Arizona and New Mexico. Typically this moisture then rotates across southern Utah and into Colorado.  This is the “Frequent” pattern in the image below (courtesy of  https://opensnow.com/ ) Occasional...

A couple of blogs ago I told you about the potential for some light rain on Wednesday morning, but it was a very small chance. Then the computers backed away from this idea. Well, now it’s back in some of the forecasts. And to be up front, it’s still only about a 10% chance of rain.  But I wanted to give you a heads up. We’re going to have some warm weather today (Monday) and especially tomorrow, when temperatures warm into the lower and even mid 90s. This will create a rather unstable (but dry) atmosphere. A weak cool front will then drop our temperatures back into the 80s for the remainder of the week.  But this front could spark off a few showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning.   Again, most of the computers don’t expect this to happen.  But here’s what one computer thinks will be happening around 2am Wednesday.   If you look closely, those small green blobs around the Spokane area are showers and thunderstorms.  Don’t get wrapped up about the...

By now most folks have a lot of hay down and are preparing to bale.  I just wanted to provide a few weather details. First, the potential rain on the 6th or 7th appears to be shifting south, as we expected.  Only a 10% chance of rain on the 8th.  Not enough to plan around at this point. We will be warming into the lower 90s by Monday and Tuesday, as you can see on the red line in the graph below. The other thing to note on the graph above is the black line, which is dew point. You’ll notice that dew points are expected to drop a bit, to around 40. Our low temperature should drop into the 40s for the next few mornings, which means there should be a least a light morning dew through Tuesday.  For wind, we’ll see breezy afternoons continue today and Saturday, followed by mostly calm days on Sunday and Monday. However, conditions will turn a bit breezy on Tuesday afternoon and become windy on Wednesday as a weak cool front moves through. So don’t expect to see any dew on...

You’ve probably already mowed several acres today as our June rain event departs. I just wanted to give you a few details on the upcoming dry spell. But first, here’s a total rainfall map of the past 6 days. Impressive amounts in some areas (northeast Washington mountains) while other areas received only scant rainfall (Spokane and South). (The 3.99” measurement at Inchelium is likely erroneous). Our temperatures will slowly climb, reaching near 90 by Monday and staying there for all of next week.  Meanwhile the dew point will gradually drop as we dry out.  As such, you might notice a slow decrease in the amount of morning dew through next week. Afternoons should have a light breeze for the rest of the week, which should aid in drying hay. The forecast does look dry for the next two weeks.  Not unusual for July.    However, the US model has been showing a possible thunderstorm event next week, around the 6th.  Here’s its forecast of the 24 hour probability ...

Yesterday’s rain left us with a very moist and unstable atmosphere.  Another band of rain from Montana and BC is expected later this afternoon and tonight. This combination could bring very heavy rain to parts of northeast Washington. The thunderstorms will be rather slow moving so downpours could cause some flooding issues, driveway washouts, etc. Here is the blend of all of the various computer forecasts.  You can see the majority of the rain falls over Pend Oreille county (Newport, Cusick, Ione). Here’s some individual computer forecasts.  I could show a lot more,  but this gives you the idea. You can see that most forecasts keep the heavy rain north of Deer Park and Wilbur.  But a few push the rain down into Spokane tonight. It also looks like the showers could continue into Tuesday, although not as heavy as today. The good news is that warmer and drier weather is on the way starting Wednesday.  We’ll be into the lower 80s by the Fourth and near 90 by t...

The answer to this blog’s title isn’t an easy one, and it’s going to depend on what risk you’re willing to take. The overall set up is this. The large low pressure system will wobble around the Northwest and vicinity for the next few days. But even when the low is east of us, we’re not out of the woods. Rainfall over Montana or even BC can wrap around the low into our area, even as late as Tuesday. So if you want a sure-fire dry forecast, you’ll probably have to wait until Wednesday.  But some folks have a lot of hay to cut and can’t wait that long. So here’s some probabilities of rain and amounts to consider.  If you live up north near Colville or Newport, odds are pretty high that you’ll see more rain, especially on Sunday night and Monday.  And it could be as much as a third of an inch. If you’re closer to the Deer Park area, the story is similar, but the amounts and probabilities are a bit lower.  Maybe a quarter inch? And if you’re down by Spokane, well then the...