When to Cut?

It’s that time of year when we stop rooting for a good rain storm and instead hope for a week of dry weather. So you’re probably looking at your favorite weather app and seeing something like this:



Should you ignore the forecast for next week and start cutting now?  The alfalfa is already starting to bloom.

The chance of rain on Saturday probably won’t be enough to worry about.  The storm is coming at us from the northwest, which is typically not a favorable direction for precipitation around here. Below is a computer forecast of precipitation.  Should be less than 0.10”, unless you live north of Colville and Sandpoint.  But it will bring dry air so the Sunday morning low temperature will probably be in the 30s.



The bigger question is the rain for next week.  Here’s the forecast weather map for next Tuesday.


That pattern looks cool and possibly wet.  Why do I say “possibly”?  This looks like it will be another spring storm.  We’ve talked about these before.  When the storm moves very slowly or stops altogether, then the result is usually  bands of precipitation that rotate around the low.  Depending on the exact location of the Low, these rain bands can come at us from any direction.  

But 5 days out, they’re nearly impossible to predict with any confidence.  Here’s an example of one computer forecast of rainfall for next Wednesday.  



You can see a couple of these spiral bands in eastern Washington, with a larger band from southern Idaho into western Montana.  But as I said, this is just one example.  There are lots of other forecasts that have the bands in other locations (like British Columbia), or no bands at all.

So at this point, we usually rely on an average of several computer models.  Here’s the average rainfall from 50 European computer forecasts, for Monday through Thursday of next week.


There’s no guarantee on these predicted rainfall amounts.  But at this point, that doesn’t look like good hay cutting weather. 

So when can I cut?  Well, after next week’s storm exits the region, the forecast models indicate high pressure building into the area from the west.  Here’s the forecast map for Flag Day (Sunday 14 June).


This pattern could last about a week.  So dry and warmer conditions could start around Friday 12 June and last until about 19 June.  That’s a 15 day forecast so confidence is pretty low at that point.  

As always, if you have a specific question or forecast need, don’t hesitate to email me at inlandnorthwesthayweather@gmail.com

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