Windy Storms on Thursday Evening

Previously I mentioned Friday had the potential to be a rainy day. But now the computers are fine-tuning their forecast and are beginning to focus on a Thursday evening event.  But first, let me show you our rainfall event that just finished up.  Northeast Washington fared very well, as did the Palouse and Panhandle.  North central Washington as well as the Basin received much less.



Our rainfall over the late winter and spring had been tracking close to normal. (The green line is this year’s rainfall, the brown line is a normal years rainfall).  But then those two long dry spells starting in late April have really put us behind on our rainfall.  For the water year (since 1 October), Deer Park is now 1.5” below normal, even after yesterday’s rain.




Looking at a map of the state, we can easily see where the dry conditions are located, with the northeast 3 counties generally averaging 50-75% of normal precipitation.




So let’s look at the next potential rain event.  Thursday is forecast to be rather warm, 85-95F.  Coupled with the abundant moisture around here right now and we’ll see dew points pushing near 60F, which is really muggy for these parts.  Several models predict storms to form near southeast Washington late Thursday afternoon, and then propagate to the north and northwest in a linear mode.  These storms could bring a heavy, but brief downpour.  But they could also bring some rather strong winds on Thursday evening.

Here’s one computer depiction of what the wind gusts might look like for one hour Thursday evening. Don’t get too hung up on the exact location.  




Here is what the European model thinks will happen:



So on Thursday evening expect a line of storms to move northward across the Palouse, reaching Spokane around 10pm, and then continuing northward from there.  Be alert for damaging winds and hail.

Friday should see more showers and thunderstorms, especially where it’s needed most, over northeast and northwest-central Washington.



We will then have a few dry days, but rain should return to the forecast around 4 June.





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