When to Cut? - Update

The forecast from my previous blog entry is pretty much holding course.

The 30F reading this morning at Deer Park airport definitely adjusted our climate clocks. It is June after all. And it’s been 14 years since Deer Park as seen such a cold morning this late in the spring.

But now our attention turns to the upcoming rain. The computers have come into overall agreement. It doesn’t look like this is going to be a stalled low pressure system with unpredictable bands of rain over a few days. Rather, it’s looking more like a quicker event. Confidence is very high that it will be raining before sunrise on Tuesday, and it will continue most all the day. It should be done by Wednesday morning.  Here’s the forecast for the next 10 days.

Amounts range from 0.25” to 0.75” depending on your location and which model you believe. But  suffice to say, you don’t want to have hay down if you can avoid it.  Here’s few computer forecasts. 

Lastly, the Model Blend forecast is more bearish on rainfall than the other models I just showed.

So after Wednesday it does look like the weather will dry out and warm up.  Here’s the forecast weather map for next weekend.

Strong high pressure is predicted for the Northwest.  The only problem with this forecast is that the high pressure is offshore to our west.  Now, most of the computer forecasts are for dry and warm (70s and 80s) weather from Thursday 11 June through at least June 18, possibly longer.   

But having high pressure that far off shore does leave open the possibility of a system dropping into our area from the north.  So I can’t guarantee we’ll see 7 or more dry days.  I’ll try to keep you posted on this.

Dew points should be around 40 on Wednesday and Thursday, so pretty low. Light-to-Average morning dew. But the morning dew point should gradually climb to around 50 by the weekend. So a little heavier dew possible. But by then our lows will be around 50 and our highs will be in the lower 80s, so the dew should evaporate pretty quickly.