Turning Colder for Thanksgiving

It's been a rather mild November thus far.  Deer Park has had 6 days of 50F or warmer this month, which is the average.  But there will probably be a couple more such days in near future.  However, the computer forecasts have been fairly consistent in showing a pattern change before the end of the month.

The first change will take place early next week.  A cold front around Monday will bring cooler and drier air into our region.  This should return our temperatures back near normal by the middle of next week:  Daytime highs around 40 with nighttime lows in the upper 20s.  Nothing to write home about.  There's a very small chance we could see some wet snow in this pattern, but it won't stick around.

But then a much better pattern change is expected to occur on the weekend before Thanksgiving.  A strong ridge of high pressure could develop in the Gulf of Alaska.  This pattern typically causes cold Alaskan/Canadian air to spill into the Northwest.  What's more, this pattern typically lasts a week or more.

The folks at the Climate Prediction Center were already looking ahead to this last week when they issued their 3-4 week outlook, valid for the last week of November and first week of December.

This kind of pattern would likely drop our temperatures by Thanksgiving into the teens or single digits at night with highs only in the 20s.  Plenty cold enough for snow, but way too far in the future to predict those kinds of details.  But a White Thanksgiving could be a possibility this year.

Here's the latest Week 2 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center folks.  Looks like we'll be huddled around a fire for Thanksgiving while folks in the East may be having a Turkey picnic.