Inland Northwest Hay Weather

 Our weather has definitely turned cooler and showery as expected.  And it's about to get a bit more interesting on Monday.  A cold upper-level low will move into the Inland Northwest, dropping snow levels and creating a rather unstable atmosphere.   All of this will lead to numerous showers on Monday.  Don't be surprised if you see some snow or graupel with these showers.  Temperatures will be in the 40s and lower 50s so any snow will quickly melt.  Here's a computer forecast of what the radar may look like tomorrow afternoon.   Additionally, thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Tuesday.  These wouldn't be strong storms or anything.  But they would hold the potential for a brief downpour of rain or graupel.  Here's the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for those days.  Anywhere with green shading has the potential for "general" thunderstorms. Wednesday will provide a brief break in the shower activity, but even then the forecast isn't complete

Most of you are probably like me, expecting (hoping?) for more rain than we received from this latest storm.  Here's the rainfall measurements from around the area.  As you can see, just about everyone around received more rain that the Spokane area.  This includes the Palouse, central Washington, the Idaho panhandle and western Montana. This was well below what we were expecting.  But a few of the computer models (very much in the minority) were pointing to a much drier forecast than what most were saying.  I hope that this drier-than-hoped event didn't impact any of your plans. We're in a cooler, showery pattern now for the next few days.  These will be light afternoon showers, but every bit will help.  Monday should have the best chance of getting wet. You may have heard that Washington state declared a drought emergency in mid-April. A quick check of the National Drought Monitor shows a much different picture. Why such a difference?  This is likely explained by the fact

Our forecast for the upcoming rain is still pretty much on track with our earlier blog.  There may be a few light showers on Thursday, but the steady rain should arrive around 6pm, depending on your location.   The steady rain Thursday night will give way to showers on Friday with highs only in the 50s.  Look for more light rain showers on Saturday with highs again in the 50s. The rainfall amount still looks similar to the earlier forecasts.  Here's the US and European models.  The US model (GFS) is still wetter than the European ECMWF model.  The GFS gives Deer Park about 0.35" of rain from Thursday night through Saturday, and over 0.50" to Pend Oreille and much of Stevens County.  If the GFS is right, Friday will be rather cold and wet. The ECMWF keeps most of the rain in the mountains, with lesser amounts in the valleys.  This is probably a better forecast since the ECMWF is run at a higher spatial resolution than the GFS. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is still co

In our last blog, we talked how broad low pressure was forecast to develop over the western US.  The details on this are starting to take shape.  I'll probably provide an update on this during the middle of the week, but here's where things stand now. First, we'll have a few dry and warmer days after our cold front on Saturday night.  High pressure will build into the area Monday through Wednesday.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a little cooling on Thursday. But it won't last.  The low pressure in the above graph that is off the California coast will merge with the small low off the west coast of Canada.  This will create a broad area of low pressure over the western US by the end of the week. This weather pattern will bring us a cool and wet Thursday night and Friday.  The rain could reach our area by Thursday afternoon, but the best odds are for Thursday night, with showers on Friday.   That said, if the timing slows down,

Our cold Alaskan weather system will soon be moving out of our area.  This will bring an end to the snow and graupel showers, along with the cold nights.  Friday will be drier but still cool.  It will also have some breezy winds from the northeast which will make it feel chillier.  Saturday should be excellent Inland NW spring day with abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures, although the northeast winds will continue. A nicely-timed cold front will move through the area on Saturday night, exiting on Sunday morning.  There will be some afternoon showers on Sunday along with gusty southwest winds and cooler temperatures.  So Saturday is your best bet for outdoor activities. How much rain will we get from this front?  It won't be a gully-washer, but definitely more than we've had from the showers this week.  Here's the forecast from the US and European models.  They're fairly close to each other.  The Panhandle will get more than 0.25", Spokane and the Palouse arou

In our last blog, we talked about the uncertainty of the forecast for the weekend we just finished.  Some computer forecasts were in the 50s, while others were in the 80s.  And while we didn't reach 80F yesterday (Sunday), it was clear that the warm forecasts were correct.  The cold low missed the Northwest entirely and moved into California instead. But 76F in mid-April for Deer Park is still rather unusual.  Our average high temperature for this time of year is supposed to be in the upper-50s.  How unusual was this 76F on 14 April?  It was the warmest 14 April for Deer Park in the short 25 year history.  For Spokane airport, it was the third warmest since 1947. Here's a table showing the date of the first 76F day in the spring and the last 76F day in the fall each year at Deer Park airport.  The average first 76F day isn't until May 3rd.  So this was a full 3 weeks ahead of schedule.  The earliest 76F day is.... wait for it..... April 8th back in 2016.  OK, so not so exci

I've talked in the past in this blog that there are literally over 100 computer forecasts that predict the weather for the next 10 days.  And the science of using these is to generate statistics from them, rather than try to pick which one will be the most accurate.  Usually, the forecasts are all fairly close to each other.  But in some instances, like this coming weekend, the computers have some big differences of opinion. Below is the high/low temperature forecast for Deer Park for the next 10 days.  The red boxes are the forecast high temperature.  The height of the box shows how much the computers agree or disagree.  For the next 4 days, the boxes are all very short.  This means that the computers all agree on the high temperature to within a few degrees of each other.  We'll have highs in the 50s to around 60F through Thursday.  But then on Friday and especially Saturday, the boxes get really tall.  In other words, there's a big disagreement on temperatures for those

Brian Brettschnieder is the state climatologist of Alaska.  He has created numerous outstanding graphics over the years. You can find his blog at https://us-climate.blogspot.com/ as well as on social media. One of the more fascinating graphs that Brian has created is that of the wettest month of the year for locations across the U.S. based on climate normals.  The image below has so many interesting details that it would take a while to discuss them all.  But I'll point out a few. In general, the wettest month in the West is during winter, while east of the Rockies the wettest month is during the summer.  But there are several exceptions. The Deep South has a strip of area from Louisiana to Georgia where the wettest month is January or February (blue shades), the only area east of the Rockies with a winter maxima. Alaska's wettest time of year is late summer and fall. Eastern Utah and western Colorado have their wettest month in the fall, which is typically the driest time of y