Wetter Weather Ahead - Update

Our forecast for the upcoming rain is still pretty much on track with our earlier blog.  There may be a few light showers on Thursday, but the steady rain should arrive around 6pm, depending on your location.  

The steady rain Thursday night will give way to showers on Friday with highs only in the 50s.  Look for more light rain showers on Saturday with highs again in the 50s.

The rainfall amount still looks similar to the earlier forecasts.  Here's the US and European models.  The US model (GFS) is still wetter than the European ECMWF model.  The GFS gives Deer Park about 0.35" of rain from Thursday night through Saturday, and over 0.50" to Pend Oreille and much of Stevens County.  If the GFS is right, Friday will be rather cold and wet.


The ECMWF keeps most of the rain in the mountains, with lesser amounts in the valleys.  This is probably a better forecast since the ECMWF is run at a higher spatial resolution than the GFS.




The National Blend of Models (NBM) is still conservative, although it has increased its rainfall forecast a bit in the past couple of days.  It would give Deer Park about 0.25" for the Thursday night through Saturday timeframe.



Looking beyond this upcoming storm, the weather remains unsettled.  Our rain storm will be exiting the region late Saturday, but a deep cold low shows up in the Gulf of Alaska.


By Monday night, this Gulf of Alaska low has moved into the Pacific Northwest. It's not directly over us, so we won't be really cold.  


This pattern should bring us cool and showery weather next week.  I don't see any real wet widespread rains from this pattern.  Just mainly afternoon showers.  I can't say it's going to rain every day, but at this point it's impossible to pick out a completely dry day.  Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

The National Weather Service outlook for May is pretty much a continuation of what we've seen this spring so far: drier and warmer than normal.






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