Inland Northwest Hay Weather

Don’t cancel thanksgiving dinner at Grandma’s house based on the weather forecast.  Yes we could see some snow this week, but it’s doubtful it will cause travel problems.  Here’s the situation. In our last blog we talked about the disagreement between the models on timing and amount of snow.  As usual, they’ve pretty much reached a consensus at this point. The timing for snow isn’t good.  The computers agree that precipitation will reach Spokane just after sunset Tuesday.  This is just about the worst timing possible if you want snow.  It allows the atmosphere to warm up to near 40 degrees just before the precipitation starts.  As such, rain is favored over snow.  Or any snow that does survive those warmer temperatures will be wet and have a difficult time accumulating on the ground.   I’ll show you the snowfall forecast from the European and US models just to give you an idea of what I’m talking about.  Both predict somewhere around an ...

Our temperatures for Thanksgiving week won’t be as cold has previously thought, but snow is still a possibility. First, we’ll need a cold front to cool us down. That should come through on Sunday night. Colder drier air will move into the area on Monday, setting the stage for the potential snow on Tuesday or Wednesday.  As is often the case around here, timing will be critical for precipitation type and any snow accumulation.  The European model (often the most accurate) is that fastest with the arrival of the next storm. It brings it in on Tuesday afternoon. As such, temperatures could be in the mid to upper 30s by the time precipitation arrives, which would mean a cold rain or a wet non-accumulating snow. Here’s that model’s prediction for snowfall.  Less than an inch of snow north of I-90.  The US model (the GFS) along with the Canadian and UK models are slower, with precipitation starting Wednesday morning. This is generally better timing for snowfall.  It w...

It's been a rather mild November thus far.  Deer Park has had 6 days of 50F or warmer this month, which is the average.  But there will probably be a couple more such days in near future.  However, the computer forecasts have been fairly consistent in showing a pattern change before the end of the month. The first change will take place early next week.  A cold front around Monday will bring cooler and drier air into our region.  This should return our temperatures back near normal by the middle of next week:  Daytime highs around 40 with nighttime lows in the upper 20s.  Nothing to write home about.  There's a very small chance we could see some wet snow in this pattern, but it won't stick around. But then a much better pattern change is expected to occur on the weekend before Thanksgiving.  A strong ridge of high pressure could develop in the Gulf of Alaska.  This pattern typically causes cold Alaskan/Canadian air to spill into the Nor...

The weather forecast delivered on its promise, with multiple storms bringing rain to the Northwest over the past week. The map below shows the rainfall total for the month so far.  Here’s the percentage of normal precipitation that has fallen in the first 6 days on this month. Most of the lower 48 states haven’t seen a drop. But areas north of San Francisco have been wet. Zooming in to the Northwest and including October in our analysis, we can see that the Basin over to Spokane has the largest anomaly compared to normal (that doesn’t mean they have had the most rainfall). Looking specifically at Deer Park, we can see that the airport is more than an inch ahead of normal (3.81” vs a normal of 2.59”). The brown line is normal, while the green line is 2025. Just for comparison, I also plotted 2024 in purple. Last year had a much drier October than this year, but we caught up quickly in November. (If you remember, November 2024 was very wet with a total of 5.75” which is more than twi...