Winter Outlook 2025-26

 At this point in the year, most folks have already posted their winter outlook.  And as usual, they are all over the place.  Here's a sampling of Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac (yes, they are two different outlooks).




Accuweather even has a specific snowfall outlook for Spokane, which is a little below normal, but more than last year.



How about the National Weather Service outlook?  Here's the December-January-February outlook for temperatures and precipitation.







So what is all of this based on?  In large part, it's expected to be a weak La Nina winter coming up.  But with a twist.  Typically, La Nina will last through the winter and dissipate in the spring.  But this year the computers expect an early end to La Nina.

Here's the various computer forecasts of the El Nino - La Nina index.  La Nina is expected to peak during the Oct-Nov-Dec time period, and by 2026, neutral conditions are favored.


The reason that there is so much focus on La Nina and El Nino is that this is tied to ocean temperature, which changes very slowly compared with the atmospheric temperatures.   We know that there are a lot of over variations and patterns the ultimately dictate the weather.  Unfortunately, we can only predict those about 1-2 weeks in advance.   As such, La Nina and El Nino tend to be the go-to signal to look at.

Does La Nina and El Nino still work?  I looked all of the winters from this century.  Here's the average snowfall for Spokane (average is 45").

  • Neutral - 48.5" 
  • El Nino - 30.6"
  • La Nina - 58.1"
So yes, this is still a good metric for the upcoming winter.  6 out of the 7 El Nino winters had below-normal snowfall, while 8 of the 11 La Nina winters had above-normal snowfall.  In other words, it's not a 100% sure thing, but it's better than a coin flip.

There are climate models that try to produce outlooks for the winter.  Here's the average of the 7 models.


For temperatures, above-normal is favored across the entire 48 states except for North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin.


For precipitation, above-average is expected from about Spokane over to the Great Lakes, with the highest confidence in Montana and North Dakota.

So most signals are pointing to at least a near-normal winter for temperature, moisture and snowfall.  Temperatures will likely be on the milder side, which is the norm these days.  Precipitation and snowfall could be above normal.  A dry and mild winter is least likely.


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