How Much Rain Will We Get?

Our cooler weather the past couple of days isn’t due to a change in the weather pattern, but rather due to the wildfire smoke blocking some of the suns rays. Here’s a morning satellite picture, showing the thick smoke over eastern Washington and the slowly approaching clouds over southwest Washington. 



Thankfully, our changing weather pattern will also push the smoke out of our area. Here’s a computer depiction of the smoke on Saturday morning. 


And here’s what that computer predicts things will look like by Monday morning. 



And as our weather pattern changes, we’ll say goodbye to the unusual late summer heat wave, and welcome in highs in the 70s, which is actually what we should be at for this time of year. 

But when will the rain arrive and how much will we get?  Our first chance of rain will be Saturday night and Sunday.  This is a very low probability event, which is common with the first wave after a dry spell.  Sprinkles for most, although a few could get a decent rain.  Tuesday will see a much better chance of rain. And there’s a continued chance of showers for the remainder of the week. 



It’s important to remember that September is our third driest month of the year, averaging just over 1/2” for the entire month. So don’t get your hopes up for a gully-washer. 

Here’s the European model rainfall forecast for our state through Friday morning. 


And there’s US GFS model forecast:



Overall the European model is wetter than the US model.  I’ve looked at other forecasts and they’re all over the place.  So in this case, it’s better to go with an average that’s bias-corrected, such as the National Blend of Models, shown below. 



0.1”-0.2” for the valleys seems like a pretty good expectation. But don’t be surprised if you get a little more or less than that. And remember, this is a total rainfall from Sunday through Thursday.  Looking beyond that, there’s still chances of rain for next weekend and the following week.

Is this enough rain to put out the wildfires?  That’s beyond my expertise. But my guess is that this upcoming rain won’t necessarily put out a fire. But the prolonged cool, wet pattern will cease the very active burning we’ve had during our heat wave and allow fire fighters to get the upper hand on the fires. 

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