Storms on the Fourth?

Way back on June 23rd, I mentioned that some of the long range computer forecasts were hinting at the potential for storms on Independence Day, but they were in the minority.  Nine days later and that's still the case.  The consensus is that any storms that do form on the 4th will move from northeast Oregon, across the Palouse, and into the Idaho Panhandle.  This is what we typically see in the summer.

But the European ensemble model run from last night and today has been trending toward a higher chance of showers making it up to Spokane, and possibly farther north.  Here's the latest chance of rain from the European model on Pivotal Weather.


There's high confidence of storms south and east of Lewiston, ID.  But 53% of the forecasts also expect some of the showers to make it up to Spokane and possibly northeast Washington.  

The US model says that the chance of rain is much lower.  It would take storms from northeast Oregon and move them into the southern Panhandle, south of Lewiston, keeping them well south of our area.


Meanwhile, the Canadian model is somewhat similar to the European, but is actually focused more on the afternoon of the 5th.



Even if the storms make it farther north, the rainfall amounts would be very light, less than 0.10".

If you have hay to bale and want a little dew, Thursday morning isn't going to work out well.  The wind will likely be too strong Wednesday night to allow for much if any dew formation Thursday morning.  There will be a better chance of a light dew on Friday morning with a low around 45F in the Deer Park area.

The extended forecast is still holding on course.  High pressure will develop over the Desert Southwest early next week, raising our temperatures back into the 90s starting Monday or Tuesday, with triple digits possible during the middle of next week.  This upcoming hot spell could last a week or more.

For those interested, it's no surprise that June was warmer and much drier than normal.  Temperatures were around 4F above normal, while rainfall was less that 25% of what we typically receive in June.







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