Storms on the Fourth - Update

If you have hay bales lying in the field, you may want to pick them up today if possible. For the past 10 days the computers have been dancing around the idea of some sort of shower activity for the Fourth.  In the blog two days ago there were still three possible scenarios:

  1. The rain would stay well south of our area (the US model idea)
  2. There could be some showers that make it up to Spokane from the south on the evening of the Fourth (European model idea)
  3. There was actually a better chance of rain on the Fifth of July (Canadian model idea). 
At this point it appears that scenario 2 and 3 are more likely. The showers will remain to our south throughout today (Friday). By the evening hours, the chance of rain increases. Below is the European rain probability for 5-11pm. But the odds are that any rain would be closer to 11pm than 5pm. 



From 11pm to 5am, the European model has fairly high chances of rain (67% in Spokane, 53% in Colville, 86% in Sandpoint). 




From 5-11am on Saturday, the European chances of rain still remain fairly high for northeast Washington and the northern panhandle.  These are high numbers, but not a done deal. And the European model is the wettest of all solutions in this event. 



Note that we’re not expecting thunderstorms with this sort of pattern.  Below is the European expected total rainfall through Saturday. 



The Canadian model (which was probably the best of the three 2 days ago at showing this possible scenario) has less rain pushing back into eastern Washington.  It expects any rain in northeast was to be less than 0.1”. 


I won’t show you the US model, but it’s similar to the Canadian model. 

If you have hay down that does get a little wet, the weather should dry out quickly by Saturday afternoon. We should have breezy afternoons for the next few days.  Each day should have winds 7-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. 


The long range forecast is still staying on course. High pressure will bring us back into the 90s by Monday, nearing triple digits by mid week, with some slight cooling by the end of the week. 



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