Next Chance of Rain

Our predicted rain event delivered very light rain to most folks, with a few pockets of rather heavy rain. Here’s the 2 day storm total rainfall detected by radar.




Our temperatures have peaked today and will be trending down for the next couple of days before a longer hot spell kicks in next week. We should reach 95-100F by Tuesday or Wednesday.  The weather map below shows a hot ridge of high pressure over us, wedged between 2 cool low pressure centers. 




But this pattern opens us up to minor little disturbances approaching us from the south or southwest, starting around Tuesday and continuing through the rest of the week.  Here’s the chances of rain for the next 10 days. Very low chances, but not zero.  The best chance will be Thursday or Friday. 




This is a pretty typical pattern for what we call high-based thunderstorms. Those typically happen with a hot, dry atmosphere. The base of the storms are often more than 10,000 above the ground. As such, most of any rain falling out of those storms evaporates before reaching the ground.  In this upcoming event, the atmosphere won’t be bone-dry like it is sometimes. In fact, by Thursday night the atmosphere could be rather moist. This will help deliver at least some rain from any storms. 

Lightning is sometimes more plentiful than raindrops with these storms. This is often referred to as Dry Lightning. The European computer does give a forecast of potential lightning.  I’m not saying that this will happen. Just giving you an idea of what is possible. 


Meanwhile this is what that same model predicts for rainfall. 


So keep an eye on the forecast for the latter half of next week. By next weekend the pattern could change to a bit cooler, back into the 80s. 




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