Rain Likely This Weekend

In the last blog we talked about the low that stalled off shore, and that it would wait until this weekend before moving onshore. Confidence of this scenario is increasing.

The rain could start as early as Friday afternoon, but more likely it will hold off until Saturday, possibly as late as Saturday evening. Rain by Sunday is almost a sure thing. Here’s the chances of rain for the next 10 days.  From late Saturday through Sunday, confidence is getting high that it will rain.  It is worth noting that with our previous forecast rain event (that didn’t pan out), the percentage only went up to about 20%.  At this point, confidence for rain this weekend is up to over 60%.



How much rain are we talking about?  This too has been increasing. Originally it only looked like about 0.10” would fall. But now it’s looking more like 0.25” to 0.50”. Here’s the expected accumulation at Deer Park. 



The map below shows the expected rain accumulation for the weekend.  Its worth pointing out that some computer forecasts call for the low to stall over the area on Sunday, bringing more that an inch of rain to some areas of the Inland Northwest, but these are in the minority at this point.


After our weekend rain event moves east, strong high pressure remains offshore.  This should keep a low threat of showers through most of next week with temperatures around 80F to finish out the end of June.



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Showers and Storms this Week

Image
The last week of July is (on average) the hottest week of the summer.  We are looking at 90s Mon-Thu this week, so this may be following the pattern.  The longest day of the year is June 20th, with 16 hours of daylight in Spokane.  By the end of July, we've already lost just over an hour of that.  Not that the length of day is the only factor of hot weather, but it obviously has an effect.  The days noticeably get shorter in August, losing about 3 minutes of sunshine each day. We were talking in the last blog about the potential for showers and thunderstorms this week.  As usual, things are becoming a bit clearer on timing and coverage.   Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase over the next few days over eastern Oregon, slowly creeping north each day. By Tuesday, the southern Washington Cascades could see an isolated storm.  Wednesday will see the potential for afternoon thunderstorms over most Washington mountains. Here’s the European ...
Read more

Weather After the Rain

Image
It took some patience, but eventually the rain fell in most places. It doesn’t make up for our dry spell, but it sure helped.  Here’s how much rain fell from the weekend storm.  Here’s a different view of the rainfall over the weekend.  It’s actually pretty close to the forecast graphics I was showing you last week.   So what can we expect for the next 10 days?  Kind of a temperature roller coaster.  After a showery Monday, we’ll warm up quickly on Tuesday, back into the lower to mid 80s.  A mostly dry cool front on Wednesday will bring some mountain showers, breezy winds and cooler temperatures.  We’ll be back in the 70s for Thursday and Friday with more mountain showers over northeast Washington. High pressure from the west will build into our area for the weekend, quickly sending temperatures climbing into the 80s, with 90s by Monday of next week. Beyond this things get more iffy.  There isn’t any clear cut agreement among the compute...
Read more

Uncertain Fourth

Image
In the previous blog I mentioned that there was too much uncertainty in the computer forecasts to look very far into the future. Unfortunately that’s still the case.  I’ve shown the graph below on a previous occasion, but it can be a little confusing so I try not to mention it. So I’ll try to explain. There are three computer centers that produce multiple computer forecasts.  The US, the Canadian, and the European. All together they produce 100 computer forecasts. You can easily average them all together, but this can hide possible scenarios. So another way is to look for clusters of solutions. Below shows four possible scenarios for July 2nd. It doesn’t take a meteorologist to figure out that each one is different.  Some have the hot high pressure (orange color) over the Northwest.  This would bring hot and dry weather.  But the other two have the high pressure to our east.  This would mean a cooler forecast for us, along with a threat of showers. And each...
Read more