Heat then Cool and Wet - Update 1

Not a lot of change in the forecast during the past 24 hours. First, the heat is still expected this weekend and early next week. Here is the probability (black line) of a high of 90F or higher for the next 10 days. Monday should be the hottest day with a nearly 100% chance of breaking 90F.  Then a gradual cool down over the rest of next week.


The rain chances for Tuesday and Wednesday are looking even smaller than yesterday’s forecast.  The European computer puts the odds at less than 1 in 10.


However, the US computer forecast actually has a 30% chance of rain during this period  


The Canadian computer is somewhere in between the others.  But even the wetter US model says that any rainfall should be light , less than 0.10”.

Chances for rain continue to slowly increase for the rest of the week and weekend. The graph below shows the chance of receiving specific amounts of rain in 24 hours. So for example, on Friday, there is a 23% chance of getting at least 0.01” of rain,  an 11% chance of getting at least 0.25”, a 6% chance of getting 0.50” and a 2% chance of getting over an inch. But as you can see in the graph below, the odds of getting even 0.01” in a 24 hour period are far from a done deal; generally less than 30% each day.  But a few computer forecasts (less than 5%) prediction a very wet event of over 1” of rain.



One thing the computers generally do agree on is that the cooler and showery weather will continue from the 13th until at least the 21st of June, and possibly a bit longer.  Temperatures will mostly be in the 70s during this time with about a 40% chance of showers each day.




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