Snow by the end of the Week

If you read the previous blog, you'll know that we were talking about two things.  First, another push of arctic air into the region.  Second, the potential for a pattern change in the Pacific leading to more snow for the Northwest.

The push of arctic air has been slowly trickling in.  We had a little push last Friday and we're getting another today (Monday).  These weren't strong arctic fronts with howling northeast winds.  But they are bringing dry air and clear skies to the area, which are ingredients for cold temperatures.  Deer Park dropped to -4F this morning, its first sub-zero temperature of this winter.

The coldest temperature this morning was -11F at Priest Lake, and -10F at Winthrop and near Cheney.


It will probably be a tad colder Tuesday or Wednesday morning.  Then the clouds start to move in from the Pacific by Thursday morning, which starts our warming trend.

Here's the weather map for Tuesday night.  The western US is covered with cold low pressure.  Meanwhile, as we were expecting, the strong high pressure that has been over the Gulf of Alaska will move too far north (blue H).  This will allow storms to start moving underneath the high and into the West coast.  The first storm (red L) will be in the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday night while a second storm is way back by the dateline.



Just 24 hours later, our first storm has really intensified.  Storms don't just move around the globe; they have life cycles.  They are born, mature, and die.  They also tend to slow down as the mature.  This storm will move into the Northwest by Thursday evening.  The second storm is to the west of the first storm.  We will see it arrive by Saturday night.


The bulk of the first storm is going to track into Oregon.  It will bring a decent amount of snow to the area.  Here's what the ECMWF model thinks will happen.



The second storm is a bit more disorganized and uncertain.  The ECMWF gives us less snow overall with this second event.



Again, these storms are still 4 to 6 days away.  Lots of time for the forecast to change.  The first storm may miss us to the south entirely.  The second storm could also be a dud, or perhaps it will be snowier than the first.

We are expected to warm above freezing by Sunday afternoon, leading to milder weather next week (highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s).  Remember, a normal high in Deer Park for mid-February is around 40F.






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