A Cold and Wet February?

Despite our recent chilly week, this winter has thus far been a very mild winter.  Could February change that?

Typically, December and/or January are the coldest months of the winter.  But there are instances where February is the coldest month.  Here's the breakdown of coldest month for Spokane:
  • December - 49 years
  • January - 75 years
  • February - 20 years
The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center does show that this February could be on the colder and wetter side.






But we've seen this before.  CPC thought that's what this winter would hold, based in large part on the expectation that this would be a La Nina winter.  So why should we believe this latest outlook for February?

La Nina has taken a long time to get started, but it has finally developed.  You can see it in the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly map below.  Note the blue area in the Pacific along the equator.


The Climate Prediction Center expects this trend to continue.  And so their outlook for February looks similar to what is typically expected in a La Nina winter/spring.

The latest weather computer forecasts do show that our dry and cold weather pattern will be ending, probably around 31 January.  Here's the current weather map (complements of Tropical Tidbits) on Saturday morning.  Strong high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska has been blocking Pacific storms for a couple of weeks now.


But that pattern is about to change by around 31 January, as low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Alaska.

A few days later, low pressure will become established over the Northwest US.  


Precipitation chances will for rain or snow at the end of next week will be similar.  But as we go into the first days of February, the odds favor snow over rain.  It's too early to forecast snow amounts.



The weather pattern also opens the potential for cold Canadian air to move into our area.  Some of the computer forecasts do show this.  This would result in sub-zero weather.  There are also a minority of forecasts that expect temperatures to warm into the upper 40s by 3 February. This results in a rather large spread of forecast temperatures.  So we'll have to wait a few days before we hopefully can get some resolution on which scenario could play out.

Has February ever been the snowiest month of the winter?  Actually, yes.  Here's the breakdown for Spokane's snowiest month of the winter.
  • November - 14
  • December - 48
  • January - 52
  • February - 20
  • March - 1





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