Ready For Some Warmth?

Well, we finally got some much needed spring rain.  But we're still about 3" below normal on precipitation, so we'll be wanting more.

Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to get just the opposite for the next 10 days.  A warming and drying trend will start on Tuesday.

Here's the weather map from Monday morning.  Our Sunday storm is over Wyoming with more low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.


By Thursday, that low pressure has been replaced by a strong high pressure system centered over Vancouver Island.  This means warmer and dry weather ahead. We'll likely see our first 80F days this coming weekend, just in time for Mother's Day.


Looking beyond this coming weekend, high pressure continues to dominate the West.  However, the jet stream in this pattern is pointed into southern BC.  About 10% of the computer forecasts have the jet stream a little farther south, bringing the potential for some showery weather to our region.  Looks like a better chance of rain by the end of next week.  In other words, we're looking at about a 12-day dry spell.



It's been a while since we talked about the summer outlook.  The Climate Prediction Center issues their outlooks on the 3rd Thursday of the month.  Here's their expectation for June-July-August.  Warmer and drier than normal for the Rockies and western US.




But these outlooks were made 2 weeks ago.  So let's take a look at the ensemble of the climate models to see what they are expecting.

We can see the dry forecast  (brown) for the southern and central Rockies.  But the outlook for the northern Rockies is more in the normal (white) category, with even some smatterings of above normal (green) precipitation in BC and Montana.

For temperatures, there's a similar message.  The southern and central Rockies have a high probability of above-normal temperatures for June-July-August.  But in the Northwest, the odds of a hot summer are closer to 60:40.

One thing I did want to point out.  Some of the climate models are pointing to a wetter-than-normal June.  This would obviously have big implications on hay season.  I'll keep an eye on this and update you when the new outlooks come out in a few weeks.




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