Extended Winter?

February is often the start of spring in the Inland Northwest.  But not always.  We've had a fairly mild winter, and so it seemed reasonable that February would continue this mild pattern.  And while we have had some spring-like days, with even a few convective afternoon showers, we've also had some cold (like this past week).  

Things are going to warm up next week, back into the 40s.  But should we get used to it and declare winter over?

First we'll start with the weather map for early next week.  Cool low pressure persists along the West Coast, but most of this storm is going south of us into California, with just light precipitation for the Northwest.  Again, typical El Nino.  We can see another cold system to the west, near the Aleutian Islands of Alaska.  This system is also going to go south of us.

By the end of next week, that system that was near the Aleutians is now off the California coast.  Meanwhile we have warmer and drier high pressure over the western US.  But take note of the cold area over the Bering Sea (west of Alaska).

By the 26th of February, that Bering Sea cold storm has dropped down into British Columbia, while the storm west of California is moving onshore.  This results in cold, stormy low pressure all along the West Coast.

By early March, this pattern has persisted, with cooler-than-normal weather for the West.

These forecasts are from the US ensemble model.  Interestingly, the European ensemble looks quite similar to the US model.  So what does that mean for our weather?

For temperatures, after Sunday's cooler, light snow day, we'll see daytime highs consistently in the 40s next week.  But in the forecast below, you can see a hint of cooler weather at the end of the forecast (right side of the graph). 

After the light snow of Sunday, we'll have some light rain to start off the week, but then things dry out by mid-week as we saw the forecast of high pressure over our area.  But note that it doesn't last, with rain returning by next Sunday.  And then note that on the far right side of the graph, snow has higher probability than rain for the 27th.

For precipitation amounts, the rain on Monday night and Tuesday will be light, around a tenth of an inch.  But the precipitation by next weekend and the following week will be more substantial and could be in the form of rain or snow.

Confidence in any forecast 10 days out is obviously low, and there is plenty of disagreement in the computer forecasts.  Some computers say that for the last week of February, daytime highs will still be in the 40s and maybe even lower 50s.  But there are a good number that warn of a cold period at the end of February and beginning of March, with high temperatures remaining below freezing during the day and more snow than rain.  It's definitely something we'll keep our eye on for the next few days.