Extended Winter Update

In our last blog, we were talking about the potential for a return of winter weather next week.  In other words, can you put away your winter gear, shovels, chains, etc?  At this point it still looks like it would be wise to wait.  

The weather computer forecasts haven't really changed all that much from our previous blog.  But we're starting to see things in a bit more detail.

We should see a few dry days here for the end of the week, as warmer high pressure builds over our area.

But then on Sunday, a cold trough of low pressure sweeps down from Alaska into the Northwest.  This will result in a rainy Sunday.  So if weekend work matters to you, Saturday is your day to get things done outdoors.

We're not looking at a lot of rain from this front.  Probably between a tenth to a quarter of an inch.  Part of the reason is that this front is moving from the northwest to the southeast.  That track isn't a favorable one for northeast WA.  Better for the Palouse and southern Panhandle.  The important part is what happens after that front goes by.

Here's the wind speed (green shading) and wind gust (black dashed line) forecast.  You can see that windy day on Sunday when the cold front moves through, and then some gusty days next week.

In the graph below you can see that temperatures (red line) will be in the 40s through Sunday, and then drop a bit into the upper 30s behind the front, on Monday and Tuesday.  But notice what happens to the dew point.  The air behind the Sunday cold front will be really dry.  Why is that important?  Because that means that snow is more likely to follow.

The next image below is the probability of precipitation type (green for rain, blue for snow).  After the rainy Sunday, notice that the odds of snow next week are higher than the odds of rain.

At this point it's too tough to time exactly when it will snow next week.  Temperatures above us are going to get really cold, which creates an unstable atmosphere.  This means a good potential for snow showers.  If the snow falls during the afternoon, it may have difficulty accumulating on the ground.  But night or morning snow will accumulate in this pattern.  And the odds are good that we'll see some accumulating snow at some point during next week.  Unless we get a lot of snow, it will probably melt in the afternoon.

The pattern doesn't change a whole lot very fast.  Here's the weather map for next weekend (i.e. March 3rd).  Still a cold unstable trough over the Northwest.  So don't expect to see much of spring next week.