Inland Northwest Hay Weather

In most years, the first fall snow isn’t much to write home about. A dusting that melts an hour after sunrise. Of course last year we had a snowless October and then a couple of snows in November that hung around all winter.  This year looks like something in between. Rain will change to snow Tuesday night and continue on Wednesday. A second round of precipitation on Thursday could bring a little more snow.  This event is pretty tricky, for a few reasons.     Early season snowfall is always complicated by warm ground.     The snow may accumulate on grass but not pavement.     The timing is favorable (late night and morning), but when the rain changes to snow is critical. If it takes too long, we’ll get more rain than snow.  As for amounts, it’s highly likely that we’ll see at least inch, but even that’s not guaranteed. Most likely we’ll see 2-3”. There’s actually a 10% chance of 6” or more.  Here’s a few computer forecasts...

 Has anyone noticed what I have?  This has been a very mild autumn this year.  This is best demonstrated by the lack of freezing temperatures thus far.  Normally, Deer Park hits freezing by the 12th of September.  This year, it took a month longer.  This is by far the longest it's ever taken, but records only go back to 1999.  And it only touched 32F, not enough to kill any gardens.   And we don't see cold temperatures anywhere in the near future.  A cool front will bring a little rain to us to start the week.  But then high pressure builds for a very mild period through early next week.  We're talking 60s with a potential to reach 70.  Here's the weather pattern for that period. But then the pattern is forecast to flop the other way, with cooler than normal weather starting around the 23rd.  This will bring nighttime temperatures below freezing with daytime highs in only the 40s.

The most frequent question I get around this time of year is undoubtedly "what's the winter going to be like?"  And with a higher degree of confidence than normal, the answer is: mild and dry.  Let me show you why. After 3 straight La Nina winters (cold & wet), the equatorial Pacific ocean temperatures started showing signs of a developing El Nino about 6 months ago.  At that time there were some indications that a strong El Nino could form.  Now in late September, it is looking like those predictions will come true.   Scientists monitor the ocean temperatures around the globe.  But a link was discovered between the ocean temperatures along the equator in the Pacific and the resulting weather patterns across the globe.  One region in particular was found to correlate best, and that is known as the Nino3.4 region. If the sea surface temperatures in that box are warmer than normal for a few consecutive months, this is called El Nino.  If th...