The Cold Days of June

 No one can disagree that we had a very mild start to the month of June.  All of the first 13 days of the month warmed up to at least 70F.  But now?  Not so much.  We won't see 70s for the next 4 or 5 days.  This mornings low temperatures will largely in the 40s.  Davenport dipped to 41F.



All of this is compliments of a large, cold upper low that has settled over the Northwest.


The dry air associated with this large upper low is keeping precipitation to a minimum.  It's also going to mean some rather chilly temperatures tonight.  Many locations will drop into the 30s.  While I don't expect freezing temperatures tonight, I'm probably going to disconnect the hoses from my frost-free hydrants, just in case.  

Today and Monday we'll see some light rain showers, mainly north of Newport and Chewelah, but a shower anywhere can't be ruled out.  Tuesday still looks like the best chance of rain.  Not a slam dunk, but probably a 50% chance for Spokane and a 70% chance for Newport northward.  Daytime temperatures on Tuesday will probably not reach 60F.  Back in 2013, Deer Park only warmed to 51F on 20 June.  (1.07" of rain fell on that day).  So this kind of weather isn't unheard of for this time of year.

After Tuesday, part of the giant low will move into central Canada, and the other half will drift to the southwest, off the California coast.  Showers will probably stick around on Wednesday, with the weather drying out and warming up on Thursday.


Then things get a little tricky.  The California low is forecast to track across the Northwest as another low from the west moves into its place off the California coast.  (We call this low a "kicker", as it will often kick out a stalled low as it takes its place.  It's fairly common).  This low moving over our area could bring a renewed threat of showers next weekend.  The current track of this low means most of the precipitation would be south of our area, but we can't rule out some showers for the Inland NW. Probably a 20-30% chance of showers for the weekend.


After the weekend, high pressure over Baja aligns with high pressure over the BC coast, while the stalled low lingers off the West Coast.  This pattern should bring warmer weather to our area.  But while about half of the weather models next week forecast dry weather, the other half show a potential for showery weather.


Here's a summary of precipitation chances (top graph) and amounts (bottom bar graph) for Newport.


If you find this blog helpful or informative, please share it with your friends.  And please feel free to comment on this blog about what you like, or what you'd like to see more of.

If you are looking to cut hay or need a weather forecast for any event, please email me at inlandnorthwesthayweather@gmail.com  I won't sell or share your personal or contact information.  


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Very Snowy and Cold Next Week

Image
As we discussed in our previous blog, our mild winter weather is coming to an end.  We'll see some light snow tonight (Friday night), but then it should be snowing most of the day on Saturday, with snow showers continuing Saturday night and into Sunday morning.   The European model isn't too excited about the snowfall amounts with this system for the Spokane area (0.7"), but gives a healthy 3-5" to the northern valleys.  It has been very consistent with this forecast over the past couple of days. Meanwhile the GFS is much more excited about this storm, bringing 6" to Spokane and Sandpoint.  The difference is that the GFS lingers the storm over our area much longer than the European model.   There are lots of other models that give us snowfall amounts somewhere between the GFS and ECMWF forecasts above.  With temperatures right around freezing, this snow will be on the heavier wetter side.  Snow-liquid ratio (SLR) will be around 10:1, which means if you get 0.25&q
Read more

Wetter Weather Ahead

Image
In our last blog, we talked how broad low pressure was forecast to develop over the western US.  The details on this are starting to take shape.  I'll probably provide an update on this during the middle of the week, but here's where things stand now. First, we'll have a few dry and warmer days after our cold front on Saturday night.  High pressure will build into the area Monday through Wednesday.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a little cooling on Thursday. But it won't last.  The low pressure in the above graph that is off the California coast will merge with the small low off the west coast of Canada.  This will create a broad area of low pressure over the western US by the end of the week. This weather pattern will bring us a cool and wet Thursday night and Friday.  The rain could reach our area by Thursday afternoon, but the best odds are for Thursday night, with showers on Friday.   That said, if the timing slows down,
Read more

Looking Ahead to Spring and Summer

Image
With the snow having melted and the road weight limit signs going up, our thoughts are naturally turning to Spring.  Will the mild temperatures and rain continue?  First, let's look at where we are on moisture. In the Northwest, things overall are on the drier side, with pockets of above normal precipitation. Zooming in a bit, we can see that the Columbia Basin overall has had above-normal precipitation, while much of the rest of the state has had near- or below- normal precipitation.  This makes sense.  We have had very little wind this winter (only one windy storm I can think of).  So the Cascade rain shadow hasn't been a factor this year. Looking even closer at a few locations, we see precipitation is very close to normal for mid-February.  In fact, it's rare that it is so close to normal (I know, that sounds strange).  Here's the Spokane Airport trace since October 1st.  The green line is the actual accumulated precipitation for this winter, while the brown line is
Read more