Cooler and showery

Today is our last day of this hot, muggy period.  Yes, for those who haven't noticed, it has been muggy.  Dew points have been routinely in the mid to upper 50s.  While not as muggy as locations east of the Rockies, it's still pretty humid for around here.  But that's not entirely unusual for May.

The end of a heat wave often (but not always) comes with a cold front.  And with a hot, humid air mass ahead of this front, thunderstorms are likely to be the result.  Storms are expected to develop today over central Oregon and Washington.



Depending on the speed of the cold front, a few storms could hit northeast Washington as early as Sunday morning.  More storms will fire during Sunday afternoon, mostly in the Idaho Panhandle.  These storms will be rather wet and capable of downpours.  But they'll also be moving at a decent speed which will limit any flooding potential.


After this, temperatures will drop back to where they should be for mid May: 60s on Monday and Tuesday, and then 70s for the rest of the week.

For those who are starting to look for those 5 dry days to do some cutting, those will be hard to come by next week.  I don't expect any more cold fronts to bring us rain.  But we will see the usual showers develop each afternoon.  These will be most numerous over northeast WA and the ID Panhandle, with most of them staying over the mountains.  But there is a chance for some showers in the valleys as well.  Rain chances will be lowest Tuesday and Wednesday, with increasing shower chances later in the week.  

Our dew points will be in the 30s and 40s next week (which is more typical for the Inland NW). This means that rainfall amounts from any showers will generally be rather light (i.e. less than 0.10").

Here's a plot from the GEFS ensemble model that shows the potential rainfall amounts for the next 10 days.



Looking a bit farther into the future, the weather pattern beyond Memorial Day looks pretty similar to this coming week.  Temperatures in the 70s with a daily chance of showers.  So if you're starting to think about first cutting, there may be 5 dry days coming up for your location.  But it's going to be hard to determine when and where they'll be.  If you're looking for an iron clad assured 5 dry days, I don't see it with this upcoming weather pattern.


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