A drying trend, but then more showers

 This past week has brought the typical rounds of spring showers.  And as is usual, some folks got more than others.  Here's an accumulation of this past week's rainfall:

So what's in store for the next two weeks?  We are going to see a change in the weather pattern.  Currently, we see warm anomalies (i.e. warmer than normal) over eastern Canada and the Aleutian Islands, with cool anomalies over California, the southeast US as well as Alaska.  The storm that was responsible for this weekend's showery weather is now slowly moving off to our east.

By the middle of this week, cooler anomalies spread over much of the West coast, with a trough of lower pressure in the Pacific NW.  Typically this pattern should bring more showers to the Inland NW.

But the computers are in good agreement that the vast majority of the rain will move from Oregon, across central Idaho, and into western Montana.  So much of the Inland NW will be on the western fringe of this rain.  There's still a chance we'll see a little rain, but not much.

By this weekend, the pattern has shifted westward.  The cool anomalies are now off the West coast, and the warm anomalies that were over eastern Canada have now shifted to cover all of Canada and the northern US.    This pattern should in general be drier and warmer, but showers are still a threat.

Looking even further out into next week, we see high pressure from the Northwest US all the way up into the Arctic, with cooler systems moving across the Southern US.  This pattern is similar to what we saw twice earlier this spring.  The first event was in late April, when Deer Park hit 90F and was the hottest location in the state of Washington.  That hot air mass eventually moved into central Canada and caused a number of wildfires north of Edmonton.  The second episode was in early/mid May, when a low pressure system actually moved westward from the Rockies into the Pac NW, bringing humid weather and showers.  And this could be repeated again, with moisture from the eastern US once again backing into our area from the east.

And the models would seem to support this idea of a warm and yet showery pattern, with showers across most of the West.

So to recap, we'll be looking at a few dry sunny and warm days early this week.  A weather system will  track south and east of our area during the mid-week, with drier air moving into the area, as dew points drop into the 40s, but we can't rule out a few afternoon light rain showers.  Perhaps a 10% chance.  Starting next weekend and throughout next week, moisture will move into the area from the east, bringing a higher chance (about 30%) of wet rain showers.

The percent chance of rain at Deer Park for the next 10 days

Forecast temperatures and dew point at Deer Park for the next 10 days.  Nighttime lows will be in the 40s and 50s with daytime highs mid 70s to lower 80s.  Dew points (i.e. moisture) will drop from the current readings in the 50s, down to around 40F by midweek, and then slowly climb back to the lower 50s by next weekend.