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A Pause in the Rain

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The weather forecast delivered on its promise, with multiple storms bringing rain to the Northwest over the past week. The map below shows the rainfall total for the month so far.  Here’s the percentage of normal precipitation that has fallen in the first 6 days on this month. Most of the lower 48 states haven’t seen a drop. But areas north of San Francisco have been wet. Zooming in to the Northwest and including October in our analysis, we can see that the Basin over to Spokane has the largest anomaly compared to normal (that doesn’t mean they have had the most rainfall). Looking specifically at Deer Park, we can see that the airport is more than an inch ahead of normal (3.81” vs a normal of 2.59”). The brown line is normal, while the green line is 2025. Just for comparison, I also plotted 2024 in purple. Last year had a much drier October than this year, but we caught up quickly in November. (If you remember, November 2024 was very wet with a total of 5.75” which is more than twi...
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October was Wet, What will November Bring?

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As I shared at the start of this month, there were signs that October would be wetter than normal. This has proved to be the case, with several fronts bringing rain to our area.  In the big picture, it was a wet month for much of the West. Here’s the percent of normal rainfall for October 2025, with green, blue and purple colors for above-normal precipitation.  Zooming in to our area we can see that much of eastern Washington received more rain than normal this month.  It’s interesting to note that much of western Washington was actually drier than normal.  For those of us with short memories, here’s how October last year looked.  So the obvious question is: what does this mean for November?  In my previous blog we talked about a weak La Niña for the first half of the wet season, which favored wetter conditions for the first half of winter.  The Climate Prediction Center outlook for November continues to show that odds are November will lean wetter and...
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Winter Outlook 2025-26

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  At this point in the year, most folks have already posted their winter outlook.  And as usual, they are all over the place.  Here's a sampling of Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac (yes, they are two different outlooks). Accuweather even has a specific snowfall outlook for Spokane, which is a little below normal, but more than last year. How about the National Weather Service outlook?  Here's the December-January-February outlook for temperatures and precipitation. So what is all of this based on?  In large part, it's expected to be a weak La Nina winter coming up.  But with a twist.  Typically, La Nina will last through the winter and dissipate in the spring.  But this year the computers expect an early end to La Nina. Here's the various computer forecasts of the El Nino - La Nina index.  La Nina is expected to peak during the Oct-Nov-Dec time period, and by 2026, neutral conditions are favored. The reason that there is so much focu...
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Snow in the Forecast?

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Just a couple of days ago we hit 80 degrees at many places, followed by a thunderstorm near Deer Park yesterday. And now we’re talking about snow? To be honest, a few of the computers were hinting at this a week ago, but I didn’t want to mention it. The computer models have really struggled with this weekend forecast. But now they’re coming into better agreement. The culprit is a deep low right over the Northwest, sending hard-to-predict bands of rain into our area. You can even see the low on radar, just west of Spokane. Rain from this low will continue Saturday night.  Then another round of rain could spin through the area on Sunday.  Meanwhile, cold air will be moving down from Canada The best way to view this is to look at the temperature forecast at about 5000 feet above sea level.  Here's that weather map on Saturday morning. And here's the forecast map for Sunday evening.  Notice how much colder (bluer) things are up in Canada, as well as our area north o...
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Thunder in October?

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While thunderstorms have been observed every month in the Inland Northwest, fall and winter thunderstorms are definitely in the rare category. But then again, temperatures near 80 on 9 October are also rare. (The record high for Spokane is 81 for this date, set back in 1934). The European model has consistently been showing a batch of showers moving through eastern Washington on Friday morning.  And the overall pattern does suggest the potential for a morning clap of thunder with these showers.  So don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble Friday morning.  This is just the lead up to a wetter weekend. It’s not going to rain for 2 straight days. But there will be periods of rain over the weekend and into Monday.  Here’s the Model Blend forecast of how much rain we might receive by Monday morning.  Around 1/4” in Spokane, with higher amounts to the north.  Temperatures will be decidedly cooler. Daytime highs on Sunday and especially Monday might not warm out of...
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Warm September, Wet October?

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As I mentioned in the previous blog, there was the potential for September 2025 to set a record for the warmest September ever recorded in Spokane. Now that we’ve turned the calendar, we can definitely say that September 2025 was the warmest on record, going back to 1881. Here’s the top 10 list.  A few things to note. September 2024 is third on the list of warmest Septembers. And 2022 is in 5th place. Is this a trend, or is something going on at the Spokane Airport? If you’ve read other blog entries you know I’ve pointed out that the temperature sensor at Spokane Airport is surrounded by a lot of concrete runways and tarmacs, which could contribute to a warm bias. But in this case, that’s not the sole cause.  If we look at other stations in the Northwest, the story is the same. Below is a map showing the ranking of 2025 temperatures in September. Missoula and Yakima also had their warmest September on record, with other locations coming close to setting records, including Lewi...
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Rain for the End of September

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September 2025 has provided us with a lot of sunshine and warm temperatures. In fact, with a week to go, Spokane is looking at the potential for its warmest September ever.  A lot could happen in that last week, so it’s not a guarantee.  But 2025 September is currently running almost 3 degrees warmer than the current record holder of 1938.  Remarkably, second place was set last September.  The trend of the last few decades is clearly for a warmer September. But the computer models expect the month to end on a cooler and wetter note.  We’ll have one more day in the 80s tomorrow (Thursday). And then a dry, breezy cold front will drop our temperatures back into the 70s. The wind and warmth on Thursday could cause some wildfire concerns.  A change in the weather pattern will occur next week.  The first front on  Sunday night and Monday will bring a low chance of showers.  Tuesday and Wednesday will have a high chance of rain.  And there’s co...
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