Inland Northwest Hay Weather

Don’t cancel thanksgiving dinner at Grandma’s house based on the weather forecast.  Yes we could see some snow this week, but it’s doubtful it will cause travel problems.  Here’s the situation. In our last blog we talked about the disagreement between the models on timing and amount of snow.  As usual, they’ve pretty much reached a consensus at this point. The timing for snow isn’t good.  The computers agree that precipitation will reach Spokane just after sunset Tuesday.  This is just about the worst timing possible if you want snow.  It allows the atmosphere to warm up to near 40 degrees just before the precipitation starts.  As such, rain is favored over snow.  Or any snow that does survive those warmer temperatures will be wet and have a difficult time accumulating on the ground.   I’ll show you the snowfall forecast from the European and US models just to give you an idea of what I’m talking about.  Both predict somewhere around an ...

Our temperatures for Thanksgiving week won’t be as cold has previously thought, but snow is still a possibility. First, we’ll need a cold front to cool us down. That should come through on Sunday night. Colder drier air will move into the area on Monday, setting the stage for the potential snow on Tuesday or Wednesday.  As is often the case around here, timing will be critical for precipitation type and any snow accumulation.  The European model (often the most accurate) is that fastest with the arrival of the next storm. It brings it in on Tuesday afternoon. As such, temperatures could be in the mid to upper 30s by the time precipitation arrives, which would mean a cold rain or a wet non-accumulating snow. Here’s that model’s prediction for snowfall.  Less than an inch of snow north of I-90.  The US model (the GFS) along with the Canadian and UK models are slower, with precipitation starting Wednesday morning. This is generally better timing for snowfall.  It w...

It's been a rather mild November thus far.  Deer Park has had 6 days of 50F or warmer this month, which is the average.  But there will probably be a couple more such days in near future.  However, the computer forecasts have been fairly consistent in showing a pattern change before the end of the month. The first change will take place early next week.  A cold front around Monday will bring cooler and drier air into our region.  This should return our temperatures back near normal by the middle of next week:  Daytime highs around 40 with nighttime lows in the upper 20s.  Nothing to write home about.  There's a very small chance we could see some wet snow in this pattern, but it won't stick around. But then a much better pattern change is expected to occur on the weekend before Thanksgiving.  A strong ridge of high pressure could develop in the Gulf of Alaska.  This pattern typically causes cold Alaskan/Canadian air to spill into the Nor...

The weather forecast delivered on its promise, with multiple storms bringing rain to the Northwest over the past week. The map below shows the rainfall total for the month so far.  Here’s the percentage of normal precipitation that has fallen in the first 6 days on this month. Most of the lower 48 states haven’t seen a drop. But areas north of San Francisco have been wet. Zooming in to the Northwest and including October in our analysis, we can see that the Basin over to Spokane has the largest anomaly compared to normal (that doesn’t mean they have had the most rainfall). Looking specifically at Deer Park, we can see that the airport is more than an inch ahead of normal (3.81” vs a normal of 2.59”). The brown line is normal, while the green line is 2025. Just for comparison, I also plotted 2024 in purple. Last year had a much drier October than this year, but we caught up quickly in November. (If you remember, November 2024 was very wet with a total of 5.75” which is more than twi...

As I shared at the start of this month, there were signs that October would be wetter than normal. This has proved to be the case, with several fronts bringing rain to our area.  In the big picture, it was a wet month for much of the West. Here’s the percent of normal rainfall for October 2025, with green, blue and purple colors for above-normal precipitation.  Zooming in to our area we can see that much of eastern Washington received more rain than normal this month.  It’s interesting to note that much of western Washington was actually drier than normal.  For those of us with short memories, here’s how October last year looked.  So the obvious question is: what does this mean for November?  In my previous blog we talked about a weak La Niña for the first half of the wet season, which favored wetter conditions for the first half of winter.  The Climate Prediction Center outlook for November continues to show that odds are November will lean wetter and...

  At this point in the year, most folks have already posted their winter outlook.  And as usual, they are all over the place.  Here's a sampling of Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac (yes, they are two different outlooks). Accuweather even has a specific snowfall outlook for Spokane, which is a little below normal, but more than last year. How about the National Weather Service outlook?  Here's the December-January-February outlook for temperatures and precipitation. So what is all of this based on?  In large part, it's expected to be a weak La Nina winter coming up.  But with a twist.  Typically, La Nina will last through the winter and dissipate in the spring.  But this year the computers expect an early end to La Nina. Here's the various computer forecasts of the El Nino - La Nina index.  La Nina is expected to peak during the Oct-Nov-Dec time period, and by 2026, neutral conditions are favored. The reason that there is so much focu...