Posts

A Washington Hurricane?

Image
By now you may have seen stories of a storm due to hit Washington on Tuesday night that is as strong as a hurricane. And these are accurate stories. However, they are all talking about western Washington. East of the Cascades, the weather from this storm will be much different.  This storm is the one we were discussing in our previous blog, and it’s potential to bring heavy snow to our area. The explosive nature of this storm is a big reason why the computer  forecasts  changed their mind so dramatically, and why they continue to struggle with the exact details.  First we’ll talk about the wind. Yes, western Washington (and Oregon) will experience a strong wind storm on Tuesday night. Here’s the European model’s prediction of wind gusts.  Note that the highest winds will be along the coast, but that there will also be strong winds in the western mountains.  One area to note is the west slopes of the Washington Cascades which can see very strong winds in this pattern   For eastern Washi
Post a Comment
Read more

A Change in the Forecast for Next Week

Image
In my previous blog, I noted that it looked like high pressure would dominate our area next week, bringing us dry and cold weather.  But recently the computers have slightly adjusted this forecast, and it looks to have some impacts on our area. First, the snow forecast for tonight is still pretty much in line with what I had talked about in the previous blog.  Snow will spread into the area this evening (Saturday evening).  Amounts will generally be light.  Look for about an inch in most valley locations.  In fact, our low temperature tonight may hold above freezing, which would further limit snow accumulation. The snow will change to rain and temperatures will warm to the mid 40s on Sunday, so the snow won't stick around long. The change in the forecast has to do with the placement of the forecast high pressure next week.  Instead of being located directly over us, it is now expected to be a little to our east. (This image is compliments of the website Tropical Tidbits). This will
Post a Comment
Read more

Snow Possible This Weekend

Image
As mentioned in the previous blog, snow is a  possibility this weekend.  There's a couple of chances, both on Saturday night as well as Sunday night.  Below is the chances of rain and snow over the next 10 days.  You can see the chance of snow late on Saturday, changing to a better chance of rain on Sunday, and then another lesser chance of a little snow on Sunday night. Why is this storm different than the previous rain storms?  Namely, it's where the storm is coming from.  The weather map below shows the storm that came through our area last Monday.  But it also shows another storm south of the Aleutian Islands, which is the wet storm that came through the Inland Northwest on Wednesday.  Both of these storms essentially are moving west to east. This next weather map shows the Wednesday storm in the West.  But you can also see the next storm that will affect our area this weekend.  Notice that this storm is coming from an area north of the Aleutian Islands, and thus is going t
Post a Comment
Read more

The Rain Returns

Image
After a few really nice November days, the rain will make its return starting tonight (Saturday night). There will be several storms passing through during the next week.  Tonight’s front will be the weakest of the bunch. We’ll only see about 0.1”. Here’s the precipitation forecast from the European model via the Pivotal Weather website.  The good news is that it should end Sunday morning.  The next rainy front will arrive around sunset on Sunday and last through most of Monday. Another wet front will move through our area on Wednesday. Tuesday and Thursday will have some showers as well. Things should start to dry out by Friday.  The wind will also be rather gusty for much of next week.  Add it all up and the European model forecast for precipitation through Friday is shown below.  Snow should be confined to the mountains in this pattern. Low land snow may be possible next weekend as the atmosphere becomes colder. Stay tuned on that for now.  Here’s a nice graphic to show you the fore
Post a Comment
Read more

Snow in the Forecast?

Image
Yes, it’s that time of year again. And if you’ve paid attention to the forecast, you’ve seen the dreaded (or delightful) word: snow. Is there really a chance of it?  Actually, there are two chances. At this time of year, timing is critical. If the clouds move in too early at night, we don’t cool down enough for snow. If the precipitation starts too late in the morning, it will be too warm for snow.  Our first chance of snow will be early tomorrow (Thursday morning). Clouds will increase about 7pm this evening and Precipitation will start about midnight. This isn’t good timing for snow. The wild card in this mix is that the air will be drier, with dew points around 30F, which is good for snow. If there is any of the white stuff on Thursday morning, it’s doubtful it will accumulate on the ground. Steady precipitation should end around 7am with about 0.15” of liquid.  We’ll have a short break before the next, stronger storm arrives Thursday night. The clouds and precipitation will be a fe
Post a Comment
Read more

Outlook for 2024/25 Winter

Image
It’s the most often asked question at this time of year: what’s the winter going to be like?  Seasonal outlooks are what I call “educated guesses”. They’re not just the flip of a coin.  There is a lot of science behind them. But their accuracy is only a little better than a coin flip.  For winter outlooks, the focus is on whether it is an El Niño, La Niña or neutral conditions in the equatorial waters of the Pacific. There are a lot of other things that come into play, but these are all in the atmosphere. And we currently can only predict the atmosphere out for about two weeks. But the oceans are much slower to react, and so we can make confident forecasts for them several months into the future.  Last winter was a great example. It was an El Niño winter, and as expected, this brought mild conditions to the Inland Northwest.  Overall. But there was a week of brutal cold in the middle of January. But when you looked at the entire winter, it was warmer than normal.  This year, it’s back
Post a Comment
Read more

Are Our Dry Seasons Getting Drier?

Image
Back in July during our hot stretch of days, I looked to see if there was any trend in how hot our summers were.  You can view that blog here . In that article, I also took a quick look at precipitation trends for the the summer, that is, for June, July and August.  But given our long wait for autumn rains this year, I wanted to take a little closer look at the warm season rains. As we've discussed before, June is really a springtime month in the Inland Northwest, although there have been some recent exceptions.  Our dry season is definitely the three months of July, August and September.   See the green bars in the graph below. And each year it's a common question: when will the fall rains arrive, ending the wildfire and dust seasons?  Sometimes that's a widespread event. But most years are like this year.  Some areas received rain, while others are still waiting.  Here's the map of yesterday's rainfall. So has there been any trend with precipitation in our dry sea
Post a Comment
Read more